Tax Reform is Not Obamacare, and Democrats Won't Win Congress Next Year

Democrats are practically giddy over the passage of the Republican tax bill, which became law without a single Democratic vote. This is because they believe that they finally have a winner when it comes to electoral strategy, as polls suggest that the GOP has passed a law as unpopular at its inception as Obamacare. Democrats believe this means that, just as Republicans swept into power in the 2010 midterms after Obamacare became law, their party is poised to reclaim Congress and take-over the speaker’s gavel next year. There are many key differences, however, between the Tax Reform and Jobs Act of 2017 and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. The most obvious, and most important, difference is that tax reform will work where socialized medicine failed.

If Democrats believe that Republicans will pay at the polls they way they did in 2010, they likely have another thing coming. It is true that the GOP tax bill is not popular at present, but a year is a political lifetime and things will almost certainly change. In 2010, Obamacare became even more unpopular post-passage because it was an unwieldy scheme that drove-up costs, put government between doctors and patients, and slowed-down the economy. By the time the 2010 midterms came around, the news on Obamacare had gotten worse, and a landslide loss for Democrats was all-but inevitable.

The same is not true for Republicans in 2018.

The past fifty years of economic history has established the fact that tax cuts work to stimulate economic growth. From John F. Kennedy’s Tax Reduction Act to Ronald Reagan’s tax reform in the 1980s, and George W. Bush’s tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, economic growth and job creation has always been the result of lower taxes and less regulation. This is because free markets work, and the more government gets out of the way, the more the American economy can produce. As a result of tax reform, Americans will earn more take-home pay, pay less for goods at the grocery store, and have greater economic upward mobility.

By the time the 2018 midterms arrive, I believe that the economy will be growing at nearly 4% per year, businesses will be expanding, the American people will have bigger pay checks, and manufacturing jobs will be returning from overseas. This will create a much more favorable electoral environment in 2018 than political prognosticators predict for Republicans here at the end of 2017. The old axiom is true that good policy makes for good politics, and for that reason I believe Republicans will retain their majority in 2018 where Democrats lost theirs in 2010.

Nancy Pelosi should follow her own advice regarding Tax Reform that she gave with regard to Obamacare and wait to see what is in it after it is implemented. Americans found out what was in Obamacare in 2010 , and we gave Democrats the boot. I believe the American people will find out what’s involved with tax reform in 2018 and renew the Republican majority next fall.