Whitmer on the Edge of Defeat in Michigan, According to Latest Poll and Projection

By Joe Cunningham | 10:33 AM on October 24, 2022

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Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, once considered a possible running mate for Joe Biden, is on the cusp of losing her job to Republican challenger Tudor Dixon.

New polling data out Monday shows that Whitmer is virtually tied with Dixon at roughly 48 percent apiece, continuing a trend of narrowing gaps for Democrats across the country. But, what’s more, if that trend holds, then Whitmer is looking at being ousted, according to RealClearPolitics.

RealClearPolitics Governor Projection as of October 24, 2022. (Credit: RealClearPolitics)

Michigan would be joining Nevada and Oregon, among others, as key pick-ups for the GOP.

The latest poll, which comes from Michigan News Source and Trafalgar, features results from 1079 likely voters. Whitmer is supported by 48.4 percent of voters, while Dixon has support from 47.9 percent. The bad news for Whitmer in this poll is that nearly 55 percent of respondents were Democrats, compared with just 37.1 percent of voters identifying as Republican.

The poll is one of the latest by Trafalgar to show a closer race in swing states than other pollsters do, but it’s not much of an outlier compared with other polls. Cygnal, identified as a Republican firm, previously polled the state as being six points in Whitmer’s favor. But other recent polls have been much closer, and many of the same issues plaguing other Democrats are also hurting her chances in Michigan.

Crime, inflation, and general displeasure with Democrats have soured voters on the Democratic Party. What’s more, Detroit is one of the worst-performing cities when it comes to controlling crime and violence and, according to data from Monday morning’s national report card, it featured some of the worst performances in fourth- and eighth-grade reading and math.

The displeasure with Whitmer may be related to those scores. Parents across the state (and the rest of the country) have been outraged at school closures and politicians’ keeping their kids out of schools during the pandemic. That has motivated parents across the country, including in Michigan, to start looking for candidates less willing to use their power to shut kids out of school again.