U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy is not a very beloved character in Louisiana politics. Despite having won two statewide elections, Cassidy’s insistence on voting to impeach Donald Trump and his support of bad bipartisan deals – like Biden’s infrastructure plan – have made him relatively unpopular in the state’s political circles.

Typically, when a politician takes the “I know better than you” route, they either are in a very safe seat or they are in on their way out the door. Cassidy is in the latter camp (for the moment), having promised that he was only going to spend two terms in the Senate when he initially ran.

However, there have been rumors across the state that Cassidy was eyeing a run for governor in 2023, when the current governor, Democrat John Bel Edwards, is term-limited himself. Now, Politico is reporting that Cassidy is indeed eyeing a run, which is… a really bad idea.

The Louisianan confirmed in an interview that he’s considering running for governor in his state, which has elected conservative Democrat John Bel Edwards to two consecutive terms — the first one over former Sen. David Vitter (R-La.). Cassidy said it’s not his idea, but that he’s “been approached to run for governor” by people in the state.

“They’ve seen what I’ve done on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, see what I did on Covid relief in December” 2020, Cassidy said on Tuesday. “They obviously see I’m trying to do good things for the state. And they like it.”

Cassidy said he’ll decide by the end of the year on whether to run. But it’s a natural fit for him, since the governor’s race in 2023 offers a low-risk campaign that wouldn’t cost him or his party his Senate seat. What’s more, his inimitable breed of GOP centrism may help Republicans win in a conservative state that’s blown two straight winnable races against the term-limited Edwards.

First, it’s worth noting that conservatism didn’t cost the GOP the 2015 or 2019 elections. In the former, former U.S. Senator David Vitter ran and Louisiana voters were just tired of hearing about the prostitution scandal that has followed him throughout his career. In the latter, a very dumb candidate dropped a ton of money to attack his fellow Republican, former Congressman Ralph Abraham, in the race rather than attack Edwards – which ultimately led to Abraham’s district simply sitting out in the general election that year.

Here’s the state of play for the 2023 election:

Attorney General Jeff Landry, State Treasurer John Schroder, and Lt. Governor Billy Nungesser are the three Republicans we are pretty sure are running. So far, there’s no major Democrat in the race, but there is a lot of speculation that Baton Rouge mayor Sharon Weston Broome wants to jump in there. I still suspect Gary Chambers, a black activist running a (very) long-shot campaign against Sen. John Kennedy this year is going to take part in the governor’s race next year.

Landry and Schroder are going to be competing for the title of Most Conservative in that race. They are both making plays in that field, though I suspect Landry has the advantage because he is out front on so many multi-state lawsuits against the Biden administration (especially where energy production is concerned). Cassidy would be a natural fit as the representative of the so-called moderate bloc in Louisiana, except Nungesser is already prepping a run for that exact role.

On the Democratic side, it’s almost a guarantee that the candidate will be black (both Broome and Chambers are), and the white Democratic establishment in Louisiana really doesn’t have any sort of a bench. So, it’s not like Cassidy can reasonably expect to pick up a lot of Democratic voters. Especially black ones.

And then, there’s this:

Not only does Cassidy poll at only 10 percent, placing him third among the Republicans, but the poll also shows some really rotten approval numbers for him.

Yikes.

To be underwater by a 38-49 count statewide, and to be even worse, 36-52, with Republicans, is horrific. Down 39-50 with white voters – ugh.

This is before Donald Trump comes down to Louisiana repeatedly to trash Cassidy as a RINO and a nutcase, which would absolutely happen were he to get into the governor’s race.

The referenced poll by JMC Analytics had a gubernatorial question on it, and the results were interesting.

Kennedy isn’t running. It isn’t totally clear why his name was included in the poll, but there’s a high probability that his inclusion kept the Landry numbers down. That, plus the 29 percent who are undecided (because we’re over a year out), would likely not bode well for Cassidy. You can bet most of Kennedy’s 22 percent goes to Landry (with some, but not much, going to Schroder). Cassidy and Nungesser are going to split the “common sense” vote, keeping both from contention. And the Democrats will solidify around one candidate, making it a Landry vs. (Insert Democrat Here) race.

Cassidy simply doesn’t stand a chance, and a smart team would acknowledge this. But Cassidy is suffering from a “holier-than-thou” ego that renders him oblivious to the obvious. Louisianans aren’t looking for a “sensible” Republican. They are looking for someone who will bring some fight to Baton Rouge. That’s why they elected a lot of conservatives in 2019 to counter Edwards (and his very pro-tax agenda) in the governor’s mansion. That’s why Republicans hold a supermajority in the state Senate and a near-supermajority in the House.

Cassidy either knows this and wants to run anyway because he thinks he can outperform the polls, or he doesn’t know this and it’s clear he’s lost touch with his state. Either choice is damning.