Going into last night, the primaries in Texas had a lot of people on the Right worried. Professional Republicans have long worried that growing urbanization and an increasing Hispanic population coupled with Donald Trump’s popularity could spell trouble for the deep red state.
However, as last night came and went, it appeared that the so-called “blue wave” didn’t materialize as expected.
It is very difficult right now to see Ted Cruz losing his re-election bid. Beto O’Rourke is about as far-left as you can get in Texas, and his chances of winning the race are as good as Wendy Davis’ chances are of making a stellar comeback.
His positions are antithetical to core Texas beliefs: He favors banning guns. He is pro-abortion. He believes in increased access to government-funded healthcare. This isn’t speculation, either. This is on his campaign website.
This is why the Democrats struggle to move the ball in red states. They think that the coming Trump backlash means they should go further left, ignoring the damage that the far-left policies of the Obama Administration did to their party in 2016 – so much so that Trump landed a surprise victory and the Republicans ended up making gains in some areas they weren’t expected to.
They are reactive to the extreme, and it doesn’t get the victories they expect it to.
That isn’t to say the blue wave is nonexistent. The wave is possible (because of the reasons mentioned above), but it is very slow moving. Midterms are rarely kind to the party in power, and the Democrats know that. They will continue to make gains in the more urban areas of Texas and will ultimately start getting some more victories.
But they won’t be able to help themselves. They will push so far to the left that Texas will “correct” itself for the next election cycle, going back to the conservative values it is famous for.
Ted Cruz is going to win his re-election campaign. Ignore the glowing media profiles of O’Rourke. They reek of the same desperation the Wendy Davis profiles did. O’Rourke still has nowhere near the name recognition that Cruz does, and Cruz has a lot of popularity still.
Beto O’Rourke, by contrast, is a far-left Democrat who does not represent Texas at all, and Texas is smart enough to recognize that. Still, it would be beneficial for Cruz and other Republicans to start fighting for the major cities again. There may not be a blue wave in the immediate future, but a shift to purple is not out of the realm of possibility.