It seems to be a good sign for Trump if a state moves from the “Leans Clinton” category to “Toss-Up.” Right now, the RCP Average for the state is resting at just below Clinton +5, which seems to be the threshold here. The polling from the state has been decidedly Democratic, but that she isn’t averaging more than 5% right now is… problematic.

Why? Obama at his lowest (2008) won the state by 5.4%. And he wasn’t incredibly popular back then. If Clinton underperforms here, it just won’t look good, and she certainly won’t be able to claim a mandate (although you know she will).

The latest poll out of Pennsylvania has her at +7, which makes this call seem strange to me. However, her average lead is shrinking, which I guess is why. This follows Michigan two days ago shifting from “Likely Clinton” to “Leans Clinton,” which suggests some momentum for Trump (if anyone says “Trumpmentum” I will ask the moderators to ban you). Trump is still heavily favored to lose (yay!), but Clinton is definitely weakening (yay!).