There has been much speculation about how former President Donald Trump will fare with black voters in the upcoming presidential election. Polling has consistently shown that African Americans are increasingly turning on President Joe Biden and are at least considering throwing their support behind the former president.
This is a welcome sign, at least for Trump, who has made concerted efforts to reach black voters. However, it is worth noting that this does not necessarily translate to more black votes for the GOP at large.
RedState’s Rusty Weiss wrote a piece detailing how Democrats are trying to downplay Trump’s seeming gains with the black community.
Democrats Desperately Downplaying Trump’s Support From Black Voters –
Trust Me, They’re Terrified
Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), whose endorsement of Biden prior to the South Carolina primary in 2020 is widely seen as a turning point in the former vice president’s campaign by securing black support in that state, is in full denial, saying “Something is amiss with the polling.”
“Anybody who believes that Donald Trump will get 30 percent of the Black male vote or 12 percent of the Black female vote — I got a bridge down there on Johns Island I’ll sell you.”
Clyburn said in January, however, that he was “very concerned” about the President’s sway with black voters. Now, as polling shows a significant shift in support from the black community, we’re being asked to believe there’s no concern.
Whether it is anti-Biden sentiment or “affection” for Trump, it is clear that Biden is losing a significant level of black support that could harm his chances of winning reelection.
Polling aggregates show support for Biden has dropped 16 points overall among black voters from 2020. Making it worse for the President’s reelection prospects, they’re actually gravitating very strongly to the presumptive GOP nominee.
According to these overall numbers:
Trump has tripled his support among Black voters from 7% in 2020 to 21% today.
Among Black voters aged 50+, Biden has dropped 9 points.
Among Black voters under age 50, Biden nearly halved his support, dropping 43 points.
However, as stated earlier, the black voters who end up supporting Trump are voting for the former president, not necessarily other Republican candidates running for other positions. A recent Pew Research Poll shows that about 83 percent of black Americans identify as Democrats, meaning they might be willing to give Trump a shot, but they will likely not be willing to do the same for other Republican candidates.
The reason for this is evident: Trump has courted black voters, and the GOP has not.
Indeed, the former president has been an outlier among Republican presidential candidates in that he made a legitimate effort in 2016 and 2020 to reach out to black Americans. From speaking directly to black Americans to forming Black Voices for Trump, it is clear the former president wants to make inroads with this demographic.
The same cannot be said of the Republican Party, which has almost completely ignored black voters. The GOP has mostly refused to push candidates in areas with high black populations. For the ones who do choose to run, they get very little support from the party apparatus. This is a reality I have heard from black Republican candidates running in cities like Baltimore.
To sum it up, Trump’s rising favorability with the black electorate ought to be setting off alarm bells within the Democratic Party. Despite their downplaying of the issue, we can be sure they are worried about this.
However, unless the GOP takes a cue from Trump, these strides will only be temporary. If the party’s leadership is wise, it will capitalize on what Trump is doing to reach these demographics.
