What Will Biden Do When Israel Finally Invades Rafah?

Israeli Defense Forces via AP

As Israel intensifies its efforts to destroy Hamas, tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden are growing. Israel began discussing an invasion of Rafah, a city located in the southern area of the Gaza Strip, a few weeks ago. Netanyahu indicated earlier that another hostage/prisoner exchange could delay the planned incursion.

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Now the prime minister has given the green light for the invasion - but what will Joe Biden do? That's not clear at all, and that lack of clarity is a problem.

More than a month after first announcing Israel’s intended offensive in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized plans for the incursion to take place, a spokesperson from the Prime Minister’s office confirmed on Friday. Though an exact time frame for the operation was not specified, it is said to include plans for the evacuation of the city’s civilians.

The announcement comes amid weeks of heightened concern among human rights organizations and world leaders alike about the impact that such an offensive would have on Rafah’s 1.4 million residents, many of whom were instructed to flee there at the onset of Israel’s ground invasion. 

As Israel continues to defy Biden and other world leaders who wish to see Israel halt its pursuit of Hamas, there is speculation as to what could happen when the IDF attacks Rafah. Congressional Democrats have expressed frustration with Israel’s pushback against the president. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said:

“Time and again, President Biden calls upon the Netanyahu government to take certain actions, and for the most part, time and again, Netanyahu ignores the president of the United States. And so I think that makes the United States look ineffective.”

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The lawmaker asserted that “to effectively enforce [Biden’s] warnings the administration has to use these other tools at its disposal,” which highlights a desire on the left for the White House to go harder in trying to compel Israel not to continue attacking Hamas, including conditioning U.S. military support and cutting off all military aid to Israel:

A group of Senate Democrats led by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) are demanding President Biden comply with the Foreign Assistance Act and cut off military aid to Israel.

The senators argued in a Monday letter to Biden that Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act requires the Biden administration halt the sale and transfer of weapons to Israel if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government continues to block U.S. humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

“The United States should not provide military assistance to any country that interferes with U.S. humanitarian assistance,” they wrote, noting the language of the statute would still allow the United States to provide missile defense systems and supplies, such as the Iron Dome, to protect Israeli civilians from rocket attacks.

Biden seemed to set a red line for Israel last week, demanding that the Jewish state refrain from invading Rafah. The White House later backtracked, claiming that his demand was not a red line. Senate Democrats have suggested refusing to send military aid to Israel if it chooses to push its incursion further into the city. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called for a regime change from the floor of the U.S. Senate, suggesting that the country should hold special elections to replace Netanyahu, referring to him as “a major obstacle to peace.” The president concurred, calling Schumer’s remarks a “good speech.”

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While the Biden administration continues flailing about, calling on the Jewish state to take a course of action that looks remarkably like surrender, Israel is locked in its war with Hamas. This is particularly frustrating given that when Hamas started the war with its October 7 surprise on Israel, Biden gave the appearance of supporting Israel's right to retaliate in self-defense.

The Biden administration is now projecting weakness and a lack of cohesive thought on the situation in the Middle East. It comes off as if the president is playing a balancing act – badly. If the United States is going to involve itself in this conflict, it must do so with a decisive stance instead of the flip-flopping we are seeing at the moment.

The fact that the White House doesn't appear even close to a game plan to implement if Israel has to take their efforts further further demonstrates the ineptitude coming from the Biden administration. Even worse, the administration's incessant insistence that Israel halt its efforts to eliminate Hamas shows that it doesn't exactly care about Israel or the civilians in Gaza, who have suffered for years under the terrorist group's rule. It is difficult to tell how much of the White House's inept response is due to malice or incompetence. But it appears we won't know how the White House will react to an invasion of Rafah until it actually happens.

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