Former President Donald Trump still enjoys a healthy lead over the Republican primary field. His lead is so considerable, he is considering skipping the first presidential primary debate. After all, why should he bother when the conservative base clearly favors him as the nominee?
However, despite Trump’s popularity among the base, he is not invincible. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is viewed as being one of the few who can challenge him, has declined in the polls due to a lackluster campaign. But there is an element in this equation that could easily turn things around for the former president: His long list of legal troubles.
In 2023, Trump made history as the first president to be indicted. Currently the Republican frontrunner for the 2024 primary, Trump is facing two indictments and awaiting two potential others related to his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. The first indictment, issued by a New York grand jury, accuses him of falsifying business records in connection with hush money paid to Stormy Daniels.
The second federal indictment charges Trump with mishandling classified documents and conspiring to obstruct justice. Additionally, he received a “target letter” regarding the Jan. 6 Capitol riot investigation. A fourth investigation is ongoing in Fulton County, Georgia, concerning attempts to overturn the election there. Trump is also facing a civil suit for inflation of net worth and has been found liable for defamation and sexual battery in a separate case brought by E. Jean Carroll. The civil suit trial is scheduled for October 2023.
Crikey, that’s a lot of legal liabilities, folks!
Trump’s legal troubles have been escalating in 2023, with multiple indictments and ongoing investigations putting his bid for the 2024 GOP nomination at risk. While he remains the frontrunner among Republican voters, the mounting legal drama could impact his ability to run an effective campaign and pose challenges in a potential face-off against President Joe Biden in the general election. As more politically motivated indictments likely loom on the horizon, voters might start to view Trump as a candidate with too much baggage, potentially leading them to consider other candidates for the GOP nomination.
Despite the legal challenges, Trump remains a popular figure among Republican voters. However, the continuous legal drama could lead some voters to question his electability in a general election against President Biden. The perception of having too much baggage could become a significant obstacle for Trump’s campaign.
As the legal proceedings unfold, Trump may find himself preoccupied with mounting defense strategies and court appearances. This diversion of focus might hinder his ability to build and maintain a robust campaign team, engage in fundraising efforts, and articulate a clear policy agenda. An ongoing legal battle might not only drain his time and resources but also overshadow his campaign messaging and policy discussions.
Furthermore, opponents within the GOP could leverage Trump’s legal troubles to cast doubts on his ability to lead effectively and govern efficiently if elected. This could open doors for other candidates to present themselves as more viable alternatives, potentially splitting the party’s support and diluting Trump’s chances of securing the nomination.
Still, it definitely wouldn’t make sense to count Trump out at this juncture. He has already shown himself to be a resilient politician and he might just be up to the challenge of juggling these politically-motivated efforts to use the legal system against him. Winning the GOP nomination might still be a breeze for the former president. But as Democrats find new and creative ways to weaponize the government against him, it might be difficult for him to defeat Biden in the general election.
Of course, there is also the possibility that Trump and his team could play political judo and leverage these attacks in his favor. He has been an expert at using attacks against him to curry more favor with the base. So far, I see no reason why he still can’t do the same here. Either way, his team is going to have to be on top of their game if they want to see Trump back in the White House after 2024.
