That FBI Raid Isn’t Doing What Democrats Hoped it Would Do

AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee

The FBI’s search of former President Donald Trump’s home is still a hot-button topic as the talking heads and politicos debate and speculate over the matter. But on the political stage, it does not appear to have made much of a splash so far.

One would think the fact that the FBI conducted a search of Trump’s home would do at least a modicum of political damage to Republican candidates – especially those linked to the former president. But the first poll taken after the raid shows that this is not quite the case.

An Emerson College poll conducted between August 15 and 16 revealed that in Ohio’s Senate race, Republican candidate J.D. Vance is still going strong in his race against Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan. From the report:

Both Vance and Ryan have strong bases of support, and the race tightens to a one-point lead for Vance among the very motivated and very likely voters in Ohio. Whereas Vance leads by a larger margin among somewhat likely and somewhat motivated voters.

While Vance leads Ryan in the ballot test, he trails his opponent on favorability; 50% have a very (27%) or somewhat (23%) favorable view of Vance whereas 54% have a very (33%) or somewhat (21%) favorable view of Ryan. Vance is also seen more unfavorably than Ryan; 41% have a somewhat (15%) or very (27%) unfavorable view of Vance, whereas 36% hold a somewhat (16%) or very (19%) unfavorable view of Ryan.

Voters were asked, regardless of whom they support, which candidate they expect to win. A majority of voters (52%) expect JD Vance to win, whereas 48% expect Tim Ryan to win.

“Voters who are most concerned about the economy break for Vance over Ryan by a 35-point margin. On the other hand, those who say abortion access and healthcare break for Ryan over Vance by 83 and 66-point margins,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College polling.

But this isn’t even the most compelling statistic.

In the generic congressional ballot, Republicans in Ohio “hold a ten point lead over the Democrats, 51 percent to 41 percent,” according to the survey.

Moreover, in a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Joe Biden and Trump, the former president leads with 53% to Biden’s 39%.

When asked about the impact of the raid on their decision to support Trump, 39% of respondents said it made them more likely to support Trump, while 35% said it made them less likely. About 27% said the raid made no difference when it came to their decision to support the former president.

When it comes to the issues Ohioans believe are most important, “Half of Ohio voters (50%) think the economy, including jobs, inflation, and taxes, is the most important issue facing Ohio, followed by abortion access (12%), healthcare (10%), crime (8%), and education (8%),” according to the poll.

This is only one poll so far, and with new developments in the case, attitudes could change depending on what the Bureau found when it searched Trump’s home. Nevertheless, the poll’s findings are noteworthy in that the information released so far has not been damning enough to cause Trump’s allies to take a hit.

At this point, it seems reasonable to speculate that this situation might not have the impact Democrats wish it would. They are still set to lose big in November, and barring some revelation showing that Trump sacrificed kittens and puppies to Baal in a secret shrine under Mar a Lago, it does not seem likely Democrats can use the raid for their purposes.


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