Donald Trump is getting a lot of votes in the primaries. There is some debate as to whether or not he already has the most amount of votes of any GOP candidate in the primaries or if he is still behind George W. Bush from 2000. The data reported for GWB differs. Regardless, Trump will likely wind up with around twelve million votes. It is an impressive figure. The problem is, Trump supporters are using as “proof” that Donald Trump has brought a whole new slew of voters into the fold and the data shows it is not true.
Streiff discussed it here with some data Politico looked at. They concluded most of the people voting in the primaries are reliable general election voters. They just decided this time around to go out and vote in a primary.
New data, collected by a firm in Florida confirms that is the case:
What is clear is, the data so far do indicate that Trump has not yet significantly grown the Republican Party. There are small numbers of new voters who came to the polls this year, and in one state – New Hampshire – that might be enough to help Trump win. But in several other swing states – Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan – if the Democrats can reassemble the Obama coalition, Trump’s new support is not enough to win.
0ptimus, the data and analytics firm that worked for Rubio, focused its analysis on a few key states.
In Virginia, there was a stunning turnout in the Republican primary on March 1. More than three times the number of primary voters in 2012 came to the polls, a total of 1,025,452.
Of that total, 18.6 percent, or 190,734, were regular primary voters. But they were swamped by voters who usually only participate in general elections. That group made up 72.1 percent of the Republican primary electorate in Virginia. Younger voters who weren’t eligible for previous elections and those who moved into the state made up 3.6 percent.
Only 5.7 percent of the more than 1 million primary voters were new voters. That’s a total of 58,450 new voters.
To put that in perspective, look at the 2012 general election. In 2012 in Virginia, President Obama defeated Republican nominee Mitt Romney by almost 150,000 votes. Obama received 1,971,820 votes to Romney’s 1,822,522.
This part is also key to remember:
And keep in mind that the Virginia primary was one of the most closely contested in the GOP race. Trump won the state, but with only one-third of the vote. He got 356,840 votes but Rubio, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Ohio Gov. John Kasich and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson received a combined 657,080 votes.
So 300,000 more people voted for somebody else other than Donald Trump. This does not bode well in a general election fight.
Part of the reason Trump and his supporters have basically pissed in the wind on their initial calls for “unity” is because they’re likely convinced all these primary voters are new Republican voters and simply is not the case. With Trump’s negatives as high as they are, he will be in for a very tough fight despite Hillary Clinton and her weak numbers.
This is why data is important. Trump thinks it is “overrated” and is not making use of it. That just doesn’t make much sense. The data is utilized to target voters to convince them to come out to the polls. Trump only managed to draw in people who will be voting regardless.