Putting This 'Dropping Out' Business In Perspective

“No matter her money, no matter her claims that Chuck is the spoiler, and no matter her endorsements, Carly Fiorina will not be the next United States Senator from California”

I think we need a time out on the whole issue of who should drop out in California.The objective fact is that Carly Fiorina cannot seal the deal with conservatives in California. Because of her failure to seal the deal, she and her team are demanding Chuck DeVore get out of the race.If we are going to play that game, we can play it, but play it the opposite way.In truth, no one should be calling on anyone else to get out of the race. It is up to the politicians to seal the deal and, if they cannot, it is their fault. Let’s not blame Chuck DeVore for Carly Fiorina being unable to seal the deal. And let’s not blame Carly Fiorina for Chuck DeVore being unable to seal the deal.This conversation would never have started but for an orchestrated effort on the Fiorina campaign’s part to declare Chuck DeVore her spoiler when, by her own campaign’s admissions and polling they champion, she has not moved in the PPIC polling statistically in more than a month when DeVore has gone up eight points.I did not call on John Hostettler to drop out in Indiana, even when the polling showed he was going to serve as a spoiler for Stutzman. Stutzman needed to do his part to make inroads with Hostettler’s crowd and, given the nature of the crowd, could not. In the same way, I am not going to call on Danny Tarkanian to drop out in Nevada. Yes, he may keep Sharron Angle from surging past Lowden, but that’s the way politics works. In some cases consolidation needs to happen. But the best way to make consolidation happen is to show why your guy is better than the also run, not why the also run should drop out.Except when candidates get other people to run as a campaign strategy to ensure their own re-election through a crowded and divided field, there is rarely a candidate who runs for statewide office who does not think he can either win or is called to do it regardless of consequences.The “get out of the race because otherwise X will win” is cheap rhetoric done on calculation that it would be more expensive to actually convince voters of the fact that X really is so bad voters cannot afford to split their vote. Yes, between Danny Tarkanian and Sharron Angle, I think voters need to rally around one or the other. Given the endorsements, money, and trends, however much I had hoped it would be Tarkanian, it is clearly Angle with the momentum and I therefore hope voters will rally around her, even though it means my favorite would lose. The greater good demands it. But that doesn’t mean Tarkanian should be forced to drop out. If he can’t see the writing on the wall, that’s between him and the ballots cast on election day.In California, Chuck DeVore and Carly Fiorina are keeping each other from beating Tom Campbell. But in my review of the data, it seems clear to me that DeVore both does better against Boxer and helps Campbell more should he get out. So why bother dropping out? I’d love to see Danny Tarkanian in the Senate, but that is not going to happen. We can be idealists, but ground our ideals in the reality of data. I’d love for Chuck DeVore to be in the United States Senate, but he probably won’t be there either. That should not distract us from the other fact the Fiorina campaign wishes we would not get to. No matter her money, no matter her claims that Chuck is the spoiler, and no matter her endorsements, Carly Fiorina will not be the next United States Senator from California either. So why bother forcing Chuck DeVore out. At least Chuck fights for freedom.



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