The myth in the California Senate race is that Tom Campbell has corralled the moderate/left votes, and Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore are splitting the conservative vote between them. In this myth, DeVore, as the lower-polling candidate, functions as a “spoiler” for Fiorina — who would otherwise win with a united conservative base behind her.

As with all myths, this one is wholly false.

Of the major polls taken on CA-Sen in the past 90 days, only five of them explicitly polled on ideological identification: Rasmussen, two SurveyUSA polls, LAT/USC, and Field. A survey of those five polls reveals the following:

1) The ideological breakdowns among the CA-Sen candidates broadly follow the overall polling breakdowns.

2) Tom Campbell, contrary to myth, has his base in self-identified conservatives, and leads among them — even in categories in which he is antagonistic toward the ideological position, such as pro-lifers and gun owners.

3) There is little evidence of movement from one candidate to another, and hence of any “spoiler” role. The only such evidence is found in the SurveyUSA polls, in which Fiorina losses are almost exactly matched by DeVore gains; if sustained in other data sets, this arguably makes Fiorina a “spoiler” for DeVore, but not vice-versa.

The bottom line is that the DeVore-as-spoiler myth is a falsehood perpetrated by an increasingly worried and anxious Fiorina campaign that is already seeking to cast blame for its failures on third parties. There is no data to support it.

Individual polls, in reverse chronological order, and comments follow.

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POLL: Rasmussen Reports
DATE: May 12th, 2010

–Conservatives–
DeVore — 70%
Campbell — 69%
Fiorina — 66%

NOTES: In this, a hypothetical matchup against Boxer, we see that the leader in conservative affections is Chuck DeVore, with Campbell second — and Fiorina a decided third.

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POLL: SurveyUSA
DATE: May 10th, 2010

–Conservatives–
Campbell — 31%
Fiorina — 25%
DeVore — 17%

–Pro-Life–
Campbell — 30%
Fiorina — 23%
DeVore — 19%

–Gun Owner–
Campbell — 34%
Fiorina — 21%
DeVore — 19%

NOTES: Here we see again Campbell leading decisively even among conservatives whom he stands in opposition to — pro-lifers and gun owners. Also note the decline in Fiorina’s standings, and the near-identical rise in DeVore’s, versus the preceding SurveyUSA poll — our only evidence of any “spoiler” role.

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POLL: SurveyUSA
DATE: April 22nd, 2010

–Conservatives–
Campbell — 31%
Fiorina — 28%
DeVore — 15%

–Pro-Life–
Campbell — 31%
Fiorina — 27%
DeVore — 15%

–Gun Owner–
Campbell — 34%
Fiorina — 28%
DeVore — 15%

NOTES: Here we see Campbell leading decisively even among conservatives whom he stands in opposition to — pro-lifers and gun owners.

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POLL: LAT/USC
DATE: April 6th, 2010

–Conservatives–
Fiorina — 30%
Campbell — 28%
DeVore — 10%

NOTES: This, nearly 60 days back, is the only poll that ever showed Fiorina leading among conservatives — proof that she is capable of a lead among conservatives, and is not held back from one by any “spoiler.”

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POLL: Field
DATE: March 18th, 2010

–Conservatives–
Campbell — 27%
Fiorina — 25%
DeVore — 13%

NOTES: We see that Campbell has a narrow lead among conservatives here.

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Now let’s look at the PPIC polling, which is even more damning for Fiorina.

FIorina — 25%
Campbell — 23%
DeVore — 16%

The margin of error is 5% in this poll and it comes after all the big endorsements for Fiorina from pro-lifers to Sarah Palin. How does it compare to the last one? Well, On March 20th, PPIC had this:

Fiorina — 24%
Campbell — 23%
DeVore — 8%

PPIC is the only poll to show Fiorina in the lead and after two months she has gained only one point and Chuck DeVore has gained 8 points.

We know from the real world — Marlin Stutzman — that two weeks out in Indiana he was at 8%, the week before the race he was at 18%, and the day of the election he got 30%.

The trends, polls, and other data are clear: Carly Fiorina has reached the glass ceiling. Chuck DeVore is going up. And it is Carly who is a drain on Chuck, not the other way around.

A conservative whose first name starts with a “C” can win the primary and beat Barbra Boxer. But that person is not named Carly. Rather that person is named Chuck.

Carly Fiorina needs to get out and endorse Chuck DeVore.