The 2018 Midterms- New England About One Year Out

This is the first of an 8 part series that will look at the 2018 midterms by region and states within that region. I am starting with New England.

CONNECTICUT

5 districts- 5 Democrats/ 0 Republicans
All five Democratic incumbents running
Incumbents facing primary challengers- 0
Incumbents with opposition party challengers- 2
Senate race: Chris Murphy (D)- primary challenger/ 2 declared Republicans

Connecticut is a deeply blue state and for the GOP to pick up anything here is beyond wishful thinking. Do not expect any surprises here.

MAINE

2 districts- 1 Democrat/ 1 Republican
Both incumbents running
Incumbents facing primary challengers- 0
Incumbents facing opposition party challengers- 2
Senate race: Angus King (I-caucuses with Democrats)- 1 declared Democrat and one declared Republican

The Congressional delegation is split- one Democrat and one Republican. The 2nd district is represented by the Republican- Bruce Poliquin- and if any district is going to flip it will be the Second. Don’t be too surprised if it happens. Three Democrats will fight it out in their primary.

Independent incumbent, Angus King is up for reelection. I fully expect him to run again as an independent as there is one declared Democrat and one declared Republican in the race thus far. Maine may be a sleeper race to keep an eye on. Trump performed fairly well here in 2016 and stands at 42% approval right now- on the cusp of having an effect. Still, I can’t see a Senator with a 67% approval rating such that King sports getting knocked out this year.

MASSACHUSETTS

9 congressional districts- all held by Democrats
1 open race- 3rd as Niki Tsongas retiring
Incumbents facing primary challenges- 3 (2nd, 7th, 8th)
Incumbents facing opposition party challengers- 2
Senate race: Elizabeth Warren (D)- no primary challengers/ 7 declared Republican challengers

Nothing is going to change the House delegation from Massachusetts.

Elizabeth Warren is up for reelection in the Senate. It is highly doubtful anyone will challenge her in the primaries. Several Republicans have stepped forward so far although they pale in name recognition next to Warren. Unfortunately, we will have to listen to another six years of Warren’s silly babble.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

2 districts- both held by Democrats
Incumbents facing primary challengers- 0
Incumbents facing opposition party challengers- 1
Senate race: none this year

Both Congresswomen are Democrats. If any district will flip, it will be the First currently held by Carol Shea-Porter. Although she currently faces no primary race, three Republicans have stepped up and neither is named Frank Guinta. Shea-Porter and Guinta have gone back and forth in holding this seat over the past few cycles. Can another Republican pull it off? Anything is possible in somewhat unpredictable New Hampshire.

RHODE ISLAND

2 districts- both held by Democrats
Incumbents facing primary challenges- 0
Incumbents facing opposition party challengers-0
Senate race- Sheldon Whitehouse (D)- no primary challenger/ 2 declared Republican challengers

After 2018, perhaps the best news for the GOP out of Rhode Island is that 2020 will likely be the last year they have two Congressional districts. If trends continue, they stand to lose one seat in the House after the 2020 Census.

And finally…

VERMONT

At large district- seat held by Democrat
Incumbent facing primary challenge- YES
Incumbent with opposition party challengers- NO
Senate race- Bernie Sanders (I- caucuses with Democrats)- one declared Democratic opponent and no declared Republicans

The only surprising news is that Democratic Congressman, Peter Welch, will face a primary challenger. No Republican has stepped forward yet.

In the Senate race, independent/socialist Bernie Sanders- the Ichabod Crane of American politics- is up for another run. The Senator with the highest approval rating in the Senate will, as of this time, be facing only a Democratic challenger as no Republican has declared their candidacy.

In conclusion, expect the Republican Party to pick up no Senate seats in this region and although they may lose a seat in Maine, they may pick one up in New Hampshire, so that’s a wash.