Wuhan Virus Numbers: Nightly Update March 30, 2020 - as of 2359 GMT

This is the 13th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.

IMPORTANT CAVEAT: Worldometers continues to revise their data in a major fashion well after their “as of” time of 2359Z. For the immediate future, I will report those numbers and post the graphs accordingly. As Worldometers adjusts them, I will go back and adjust the numbers in the nightly report. Technical issues preclude adjusting the graph after publication. I am looking into resolving this issue. More to follow.**

As of 2359 GMT (Worldometers site) March 30, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.93%.

On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality and continuing until today. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the graphical path of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today shows a noticeable M/R uptick of 0.13% to an M/R of 1.93% from yesterday’s reports.

At this point, I have no prediction to make regarding the Mortality Rate, as too many variables are now in play. As more test materials are fielded, additional treatment facilities (USNS Comfort and Mercy, along with temporary Field Hospitals) become mission capable and most of all, new treatment regimes (Chloroquine) are fielded, the numbers should get better quickly.

The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Today’s numbers show a bend back to the left over yesterday’s numbers, but only slightly over Saturday’s.

This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it who have gone unreported. For today’s report:

M/R = 1.93%

+1 = 0.96%
+2 = 0.64%
+3 = 0.48%

We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.

Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.

**This slide is a snapshot of the Worldometers site at their “as of” time of 0000Z