President Donald Trump speaks about the coronavirus in the James Brady Briefing Room, Wednesday, March 25, 2020, in Washington, as Vice President Mike Pence and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin listen. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
This is the 9th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
The trend line in American Wuhan Virus fatalities compared to total infections has edged slightly upwards over the past two days, moving from 1.28% on March 23, through 1.46% yesterday and settling at 1.42% today. As of 2359 GMT, March 25, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.42%. This latest “wobble” in the M/R is likely due to testing finally getting closer (but still not close enough) to identifying the actual number of infected persons, but also because of inherent lag in fatalities behind new discoveries of infected persons.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update showing total reported U.S. Cases and Total U.S. Fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends until it’s determined to be no longer useful to our readers.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality and continuing until today. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today shows a slight downtick (4/100%) of the M/R from yesterday’s report reports. My assessment is that the M/R will again continue its downward path until test materials and equipment are fully fielded and the supply chain is well established and fully supportive of demand from the field. At that point, the calculated M/R will reflect what it actually has been all along.
Some of you might notice a slight discrepancy between today’s charts and yesterday’s. I normally wait until 2359Z to pull the data as of that time. I build the charts and set them up for publication. Today I noticed what I thought was a mathematical error. It turns out that sometime between the 2359Z “cutoff” last night, and late afternoon today, previous numbers on fatalities had been updated on the worldometers site. So I have gone in and made those adjustments. Going forward, I will regularly check backward to look for changes so that we keep getting you the most accurate data…good news or not.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Today’s numbers are somewhat concerning. Instead of continuing to edge to the right, the Fatalities line moved slightly back to the right, more “wobble,” with new additional deaths of 151, 74 fewer than yesterday. As we go forward, we are hoping to see this repeat itself.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.42%
+1 = 0.71%
+2 = 0.47%
+3 = 0.35%
If you believe that there is a good chance that for each known person infected, there are 3 others out there who haven’t been reported, then the United States Wuhan Virus is now approaching the same CDC claimed M/R for our seasonal Flu. All of this could change in a nanosecond, but for now, once again, cautiously optimistic.
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.