Health officials inspect bats to be confiscated and culled in the wake of coronavirus outbreak at a live animal market in Solo, Central Java, Indonesia, Saturday, March 14, 2020. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. (AP Photo)
This is the third in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
The trend line in American Wuhan Virus fatalities compared to total infections continues to be grounds for cautious optimism. As of 2359 GMT, March 19, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.50%. This number has been steadily declining since March 3, when the rate was over 7%.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update that shows the total reported U.S. cases and total U.S. fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the steady decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today showed a downward pitch from yesterday’s slight flattening of the downward trend of the M/R. Having said that, one day or even two, does not make a trend.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Over time, what we hope to see is that line take a more gradual slope and eventually become horizontal. As with the above chart, we had hoped to see some indication of flattening. Early reports today indicated the possibility, but late-arriving reports shoved the slope back towards vertical. Note: the slope has not gotten MORE vertical. So, that’s some good news.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.50%
+1 = 0.75%
+2 = 0.50%
+3 = 0.38%
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.