Here's What to Expect With Vote Tallies in Arizona on Thursday

After a ballot drop of approximately 62,000 early ballots in Maricopa County on Thursday, as well as ballot drops from smaller counties, Arizona Democratic gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs is leading Republican Kari Lake by nearly 13,000 votes, and Democratic. Sen. Mark Kelly is leading Republican senatorial candidate Blake Masters by roughly 95,000 votes.


However, the race could potentially swing back in favor of Republicans in these two races due to the number of ballots, and type of ballots left to count.

In Maricopa County alone, there are an estimated 400-410,000 ballots left. On Thursday morning, the county announced that they are processing ballots that were dropped off on Election Day, which is an estimated 290,000 ballots.

In addition, the county said in an email on Wednesday night that there are an estimated 17,000 in-person Election Day ballots left “to be counted”, 143,000 early ballots “left to verify”, and about 8,000 provisional ballots “left to research.”

The Arizona-based Republican data analytics firm Data Orbital said that Wednesday night’s batch was expected to be bad for Republicans, and the coming batch of Election Day drop-offs will likely favor Republican candidates.


Lake also went on “Louder with Crowder” to express her optimism over Election Day ballot drop-offs:

As ABC15 Arizona’s Garrett Archer tweeted on Thursday morning, there will also be smaller ballot drops from other counties, but Maricopa and Pima counties will be the ones to watch.


The process in Maricopa County and Arizona as a whole takes longer because of the number of people that drop their mail-in ballots off in person on Election Day, according to the Associated Press. Depending on the size of the batch that is posted on Thursday night, it could be a few more days before any call can be made in Arizona. Almost all of the major statewide races are close at the moment, so it would be too early to make a sound projection on who will win, especially if a race ends up within the 0.5 percent recount margin.


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