Turning Tide? Decision Desk HQ Predicts Republicans Will Now Win Senate

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File

The tide may be turning for Republicans when it comes to winning back control of the Senate, at least according to Decision Desk HQ.

The political forecasting and election results website announced Friday that Republicans now have a 50.4 percent chance of taking the Senate with 51 seats in their model, which is the first time Republicans have had better odds in their model since starting it.


One of the reasons they attribute to this is how Republican Mehmet Oz now has a 53.1 percent chance of winning compared to Democrat John Fetterman’s 46.9 percent in the toss-up Pennsylvania race. Fetterman’s poor debate performance earlier this week garnered widespread attention, and it arguably worked in Oz’s favor.

Decision Desk HQ also ranks Nevada and Georgia as toss-ups. North Carolina and Ohio are ranked leaning Republican, whereas Arizona and New Hampshire are ranked leaning Democrat.


This serves as a positive sign for Republicans, and there are still 11 days for the candidates to make their case to voters.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 52 in 100 chance of winning the Senate, and RealClearPolitics predicts that Republicans will pick up three seats and have a 53 to 47 majority.

While predictions are just that, they are a useful tool for politicos and citizens alike to gauge what the political environment currently looks like. For example, Politico recently moved their Arizona Senate race status to “toss-up”, as Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly is struggling to maintain a solid lead over Republican Blake Masters, who’s a political outsider.


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