As Americans are paying more everywhere from the gas pump to the grocery store, 56 percent believe that the United States is already in a recession, according to a new YouGov/The Economist poll.

When broken down by party, 70 percent of Republicans, 45 percent of Democrats, and 56 percent of independents believe the U.S. is in a serious economic downturn. The poll taken from June 11 to June 14 asked 1,500 American adults and has a 3.1 percent margin of error.

YouGov/Economist poll: 56 percent believe U.S. is in recession

U.S. is in Recession:
56% – Overall
70% – Republicans
56% – Independents
45% – Democrats
53% – Black voters
47% – Hispanic voters

06/11-06/14 / 1,500 Adultshttps://t.co/E2Ij2qCroH

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 16, 2022

It’s worth noting that the U.S. is not technically in a recession yet, but it’s highly likely one will happen soon. According to Bloomberg Economics models, there is a 74 percent chance there will be one by 2024. Bloomberg even ran a headline Thursday that said, “US Faces a Fed-Triggered Recession That May Cost Biden a Second Term,” which makes the potential political impact extremely clear. If economic problems worsen, it opens the door for Republicans to easily win the midterms and provides the 2024 Republican nominee with an easy platform. Other issues matter to voters too, except there’s a good chunk of Americans that will feel compelled to vote with their wallets.

However, many believe that the current conditions indicate that it will happen quicker than expected. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percent on Wednesday in hopes to fight inflation, which is the most drastic increase since 1994, Yahoo Finance reported. The goal of raising interest rates is to slow down the economy by disincentivizing borrowing money, and it’s not foolproof.

“The economy is going to collapse,” Wall Street Michael Novogratz expert said to MarketWatch in an interview on Wednesday. “We are going to go into a really fast recession, and you can see that in lots of ways.”

In terms of the stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped below 30 thousand on Thursday, being down over 800 points at times throughout the day. Although the Dow is not in bear market territory, the S&P 500 continues to tumble and hit a bear market on Monday, CNBC reported.

It’s important that polls like this ask how Americans feel about the economic situation because it’s what ultimately determines the consequences for many policymakers. Americans were told they would be able to “Build Back Better” after the pandemic, at least in President Joe Biden’s words, but instead, they got an over-regulatory federal government that’s punished the oil and gas industry and spent taxpayer dollars out the wazoo.