Left-Leaning Pollster Shows Beto O'Rourke Down Nearly 20 Percent in Texas Gubernatorial Race

AP Photo/John Minchillo

Texas gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) is trailing Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by 18.3 percent in a new poll from the Democrat-supportive Blueprint Polling/Chism Strategies.


In the survey of 603 Texas voters, 55.5 percent said they were “definitely” or “leaning toward” Abbott, compared with just 37.2 percent saying the same for O’Rourke, who formerly represented the El Paso area in the U.S. House.

Seven percent are unsure, and there is a 15.6 percent gap between those “definitely” voting for either candidate. The poll has a 3.99 percent margin of error.

The Real Clear Politics polling average for the race shows Abbott with a 6.7 percent lead average, and it does not include this survey.

Beyond the polls, O’Rourke is likely still working on overcoming a large money gap between him and his opponent.

As of February, Abbott is in a much better campaign finance position than the former presidential and senatorial candidate, as the incumbent had $62.6 million, which dwarfed O’Rourke’s $6 million, The Texas Tribune reported at the time.

The Democrat gained nationwide attention for interrupting a press conference featuring Abbott following the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting, so it will be interesting to see what his money shapes out to be when the next report is filed.

Regardless, these polling numbers are terrible for O’Rourke no matter how you slice it. As they come from a pollster that backs his own party, it shows an uphill battle and likely a damning fate for the candidate this November.


Democrats have been pushing for Texas to flip blue with a statewide victory for years but keep failing in their pursuit. O’Rourke quickly became popular among the party, despite narrowly losing to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in 2018. Still, the race was sufficiently competitive that he felt prompted to launch a failed presidential bid in 2020.

He might be convinced that the third time is the charm to revive his political career, yet it will come across as embarrassing this time around. O’Rourke has a not-so-tough choice to make if he loses in November: retire from perpetual campaigning or continue to be a perennial candidate.

Sure, he’s only 49 years old, but age is not the only factor in determining whether or not it’s time to pass the torch. The political environment is different than it was in 2018, as there’s much more likely to be a red wave than a blue one. Unfortunately for O’Rourke, he’ll learn that the hard way.


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