Finally a Statistically Significant Lead in the NH Senate Race

Sen. Kelley Ayotte

In a race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate, a new WMUR Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, finds that among likely New Hampshire voters Democrat Maggie Hassan leads Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte:

  • Hassan  – 46%
  • Ayotte – 38%
  • Undecided – 13%

When leaners are included, Hassan leads Ayotte 48 percent to 39 percent, with 9% percent undecided.

“The survey center said the new poll marked the first time either candidate in the Senate race ‘has held a statistically significant lead since the UNH Survey Center began polling on this race in May 2015.’” But, half of likely voters have not “definitely decided” whom they will vote for.

The Real Clear Politics average for New Hampshire Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan has Hassan up by 2.0 points.

The new WMUR Granite State poll was conducted  October 11-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

The poll supports Steve Schmidt’s prediction that the Democrats will retake control of the Senate. It also shows the danger to Republicans of Clinton’s growing lead over Donald Trump in the polls. As we reported yesterday, Hillary supporting Super PACS are now freeing up money to try and win congressional races.

WMUR reports that both Ayotte and Hassan have suffered a steady stream of negative television attack ads. The pro-Hassan groups have been advertising more heavily on New Hampshire and Boston television airwaves in recent months and those attacks have focused on tying Ayotte to Trump. That appears to be working even though Ayotte dropped her support for Trump, following the release of the 2005 “Access Hollywood” video.