Early voting in Nevada kicked off on Saturday, setting the stage for a critical election cycle. Despite never having won Nevada, former President Donald Trump is mounting a serious challenge for the Silver State's six electoral votes this time around. The so-called Clark firewall, once a bastion of Democratic support, is now showing cracks as the GOP gears up to capitalize on this opportunity.

Analyzing the voting landscape is relatively straightforward, with key Democrat strongholds in Washoe County (home to the Reno area) and Clark County (the Las Vegas area). For Democrats to secure victory, they need to establish a significant early voting lead in these counties to counterbalance the Republican turnout advantage seen in the rest of the state—often referred to as the "rurals"—and especially on Election Day. As we watch the voting data, all eyes will be on how well the Democrats can maintain their lead in these key areas while Republicans work to... un-build that wall!

The so-called Clark firewall has historically been a critical defense for Democrats, delivering substantial leads for them. In 2020, they had a lead of over 32,000 votes from Clark County after one day of early voting. Heading into Election Day that year, Democrats boasted a massive early voting lead of over 90,000 votes in Clark, while their advantage in Washoe County was much tighter at around 2,000 votes. Currently, Democrats hold just a 7,000-vote lead in Clark County after the first day of early voting, translating to a 1,800-vote lead statewide, a stark contrast to the 40,000-vote advantage they had after one day of early voting in 2020. 

On the first day of NV early voting in 2020, Rs outvoted Ds by <1K. Ds outvoted Rs in Clark by almost 2K.

In 2024, Rs outvoted Ds by more than 10K(!). Rs outvoted Ds in Clark by more than 5K. Huge swing for Rs.

All the caveats about needing to wait on Clark mail still apply. https://t.co/no2ezkQbog pic.twitter.com/EFHfaAyVOX

— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) October 20, 2024

This raises serious questions about the Democrats' ability to fend off robust Republican favorability in the rural counties, and the prospect of higher GOP turnout on Election Day. Nevada is shaping up to be a golden opportunity for Trump and the Republican Party to make significant gains. Yes, Nevada is in play as a swing state and may serve as a bellwether this cycle.

However, it's not all going swimmingly. In Clark County, technical issues have plagued early voting data resulting in all voters being misclassified as “NPs” (non-partisan) in initial reports. While the Nevada Secretary of State's office has provided correct partisan breakdowns, this confusion could impact voter confidence.

It seems that Clark IPEV data had all voters labeled as "NPs" in their raw file (but correctly labeled in VBM data). The @NVSOS does have a partisan breakdown.

Once Clark has fixed their files, district breakdowns will be ready! For now, here's Clark's combined VBM & IPEV: https://t.co/5krG3MGgOH pic.twitter.com/SfZG2E9rr2

— NevaData (@NevaDataLLC) October 20, 2024

If the mislabeling issue in Clark continues, it could further erode trust in the election process and can significantly impact turnout. If voters feel uncertain, they may choose to stay home.