After the revelation that South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem once shot a dog, there are a lot of Republicans who don't think she should be in the running to be Donald Trump's running mate this year, saying she would be too controversial. Or that she's a terrible person for doing what she did. Or that including the story in her new book shows a severe lack of judgment. I'm not one of those people. I believe that Noem's shooting a puppy story increases Noem's odds of being Trump's veep pick.
READ MORE: In Upcoming Book, Gov Kristi Noem Describes Shooting Her Own Dog - Will It Damage Her VP Chances?
I have "picked" Noem as the person "I've got my money on" since last April, though, to use a bettor's lexicon, I've wagered zero dollars. I live in Las Vegas and I love football, so this isn't an endorsement-type take, but much more of an oddsmakers take.
I’ve got my money on Noem for VP. She’s not bombastic, presents well, wouldn’t “outshine” him. She was among the more popular GOP Covidian-era governors, which matches well against DeSantis’ appeals.
— BrutalBrittany💕 (@BrutalBrittany2) April 8, 2023
Her life story is opposite of DJT, rural farm kid.
I think she’s the pick.
And, I don't care who Donald Trump picks as his running mate. It wouldn't sway my vote either way. The job seems fairly ceremonial and the bar is on the floor. Our list of Vice Presidents goes: Kamala Harris, Mike Pence, Joe Biden, Dick Cheney, and Al Gore. That's a whole lotta nothing.
If my year-out prediction ends up incorrect... well, do you know how many football games a week I pick wrong? Plenty. If you wanted a fortune teller, I'll have to refer you to someone else. But, if you want an authentic opinion, I can give you that.
I saw Noem speak at CPAC a few years ago. I don't remember any part of the talk she gave, except that I realized that she was speaking while at the hotel's gym and ran down in my workout clothes to catch her appearance. A part of me thinks I just wanted to see if her arms looked that toned in real life.
It was still the pandemic-era, so the convention's hotel was doing all kinds of stupid hoops, like daily temperature checks that earned you a sticker on your credentials to be permitted inside the event hall. Hotel workers were scattered about with signs and bags full of masks, to remind attendees to wear one. I once quipped back at an employee, "But if I put on a mask, then what would you do all day?"
It's important in context, that Noem's straw polls were impressive that year because she was a rockstar Republican governor amid a backdrop of COVID-era regulation. For whatever reason, Noem was the kind of woman I sprinted to see speak, disregarding the fact I was sweaty and remarkably under-dressed for the occasion. And yes, her arms really do look like that.
There are many reasons why I think Donald Trump's likely pick is Noem, and all of them have to do with Donald Trump.
Trump is both a master of media and branding. I knew he wouldn't have a Vivek Ramaswamy ticket; it wouldn't make a good bumper sticker. Trump/ Noem has a ring to it like Christmas bells.
Plus, Trump loves to be the center of attention, he won't pick someone that makes him compete for it so, I don't think he will pick a big talker. Most people that I've polled are leaning toward a woman running mate, not only as a balancing act to Kamala Harris but also to appeal to that demographic.
For me, it's always been Noem's spot. She has the looks, she can present herself and be in the limelight, but won't compete for it. She's not like the firebrand Congresspeople always trying to get their 15 minutes on the evening news every week. She's strategically low-profile. And maybe most importantly of all, her name works next to Trump's on a bumper sticker. Gold-leaf it, I'm sold.
And now comes the bombshell: an excerpt of her upcoming book, "No Going Back: The Truth on What’s Wrong with Politics and How We Move America Forward" shares graphic details of how she once put her dog down in her youth.
In the book, she says she hated that dog, that he wasn't good for hunting, and she took a gun and shot him on the edge of a pit of rubble... or the story goes something like that. Some people are taking the time to have the nuanced conversation, that the dog was violent, and a danger to everyone it encountered. Even so, the story isn't intended to muddy up the reputation of Cricket the dog. It's designed to cast Noem in a certain light, and that's the interesting part, to me.
I understand some people want to keep debating the morality of a decision made about a dog on a ranch before I was born... and I'll leave you to it. I keep getting flashbacks to being in a high school literature class during a discussion about "Of Mice and Men." Of course, Lennie's puppy is a metaphor for inescapable fate, including his own, yet that is still more interesting than debating the subjective morality of a rancher's practices 40 years ago.
As the shock-factor story broke, I was specifically asked my opinion of it by one male online acquaintance who I happened to have given my TED Talk about how it's gonna be Noem, the night before. I noticed that this man was taking a similar tone to the one my colleague Ward Clark struck in his telling of growing up in the country around animals.
This tone is something like bracing themselves for the political upheaval and her veep chances being scuttled by the implications of the puppy execution.
Ward wrote:
With that said - well, people love dogs. Many people don't understand (or don't care) about the different choices rural people have to deal with. And while Gov. Noem has been oft-touted as a possible running mate for former President Trump in the 2024 campaign, this incident could damage her chances. It's an easy thing for the left to toss at her, to imply that she wasn't a woman from a farm family faced with a difficult choice, but a callous, heartless person who shot a dog who was misbehaving.
That's politics. It's a tough business. A political career can be ruined by one choice--but it remains to be seen whether this will be one of those.
When you run for the high office you're supposed to have a family dog, preferably a Golden Retriever, and make it picturesque. Conventional wisdom says: DON'T TALK ABOUT SHOOTING DOGS.
While I'm reading the room as something like a metaphoric sharp inhale, I feel more like Joaquin Phoenix in Joker laughing to myself and saying, "You wouldn't get it." But, I'm here to offer a woman's perspective.
I find myself, once again, rushing in slightly sweaty and in awe of Noem: I think we are witnessing a potential political genius at work, and we'd better take some notes.
First, I'll note that "gasping" is a word Noem used herself in a post on X, while defending the story. I didn't realize that before selecting my own description, but at least I can determine we are on the same page about her tale's reception.
She wrote:
We love animals, but tough decisions like this happen all the time on a farm. Sadly, we just had to put down 3 horses a few weeks ago that had been in our family for 25 years. If you want more real, honest, and politically INcorrect stories that’ll have the media gasping, preorder “No Going Back.”
We love animals, but tough decisions like this happen all the time on a farm. Sadly, we just had to put down 3 horses a few weeks ago that had been in our family for 25 years.
— Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) April 26, 2024
If you want more real, honest, and politically INcorrect stories that’ll have the media gasping,… pic.twitter.com/bKhpUkchHV
There is no way this isn't a planned PR move. Nothing makes it into those requisite political books without editorial scrutiny and a political team's consensus. The book isn't even out yet and we have the doggie story excerpt.
This is Branding: Trumpism 101.
If the book was about how she played with dolls and liked to braid her hair, nobody would care. But here we are, talking about her.
That's Trumping the Media 101.
What did I call Trump a master of? Oh, media and branding. Two check marks, then.
What we are left with is Noem looking decisive and strong. She knows when to pull the trigger when the human cost is greater. She looks like the leadership we need in a world at war.
Speaking of a world at war... my brain decided to loop a President Trump quote, circa Islamic State leader, Abu...Bkar...al-Baghdadi's death:
He died like a dog.
I could post the original Trump White House announcement, but to demonstrate how iconic these words are, let's enjoy the stand-up comedy version by Shane Gillis instead:
Viewer discretion: vulgar language
About a week ago I was writing about how all these not-Trump voters in focus groups didn't like Kamala Harris, and I ran across a quote that stuck with me.
Studies by the Barbara Lee Family Foundation, which works to advance women’s equality in politics, suggest women face an “imagination barrier” when they run for the highest executive offices, because voters have a harder time picturing them in the job than they do white men, who have historically held the posts.
“Men can tell and women have to show,” said Amanda Hunter, the foundation’s executive director.
Maybe I appreciated that sentiment a bit more having grown up in the Show Me State, but I heard those words loud and clear: Women have to show.
Well, now we have a reference for if Noem is tough enough. Can she take down an al-Baghdadi and make him die like a dog? Mmmhmm, she can.
Read More: 'The Voters Don't Like Her': Arizona Focus Groups Offer 'Brutal' Assessments of Kamala Harris
Lastly, I think this is a direct play on attracting former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley's voters.
Hear me out:
I've canvassed and knocked on thousands of doors talking to voters. Some of that was in South Carolina, where Haley voters do exist. I've met Haley voters. These were overwhelmingly women voters who always answered the same saying that they supported her because they felt she was good on geopolitics and national defense in a world that they felt was increasingly less safe because of Russia, China, and Iran.
The most common negative associations Haley is labeled with are that she's a neocon and a war hawk. But, on October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israeli civilians, she was about a week into a media run about supporting Israel. She was right on time and appeared strong on the issue of the day.
To refresh your memory and dust away skepticism, here is Haley's social media post on Oct 3, showing a clip of her on Fox News:
Israel is a bright spot in a tough neighborhood and our first line of defense from Iran.
— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) October 3, 2023
We will always have its back. pic.twitter.com/OhirrWE3PD
Trump will probably never make a direct appeal to Haley's voters, especially since she has refused to endorse him there is no figurative olive branch to work with at this time. But, one strategy might be to appeal to the reasons that Haley was drawing some support by substituting Noem in a similar light: tough enough to pull the trigger in a world at war.
Maybe it's not an appeal for the voters in the fray, and I didn't think the Chiefs would lose to the Lions in the season opener. It's the closest thing I've seen to an appeal to those voters, anyway.
But, the point is to discuss the underlying strategy. Why would they publish this? Why now? And, what are the implications outside of the "Was she right or wrong" hot takes?
Some people are holding their breath on a veeping catastrophe, but I'm taking notes of a potential political genius who understands the power of perception and knows how to navigate the converging complexities of being a woman. She may be turning the rulebook on its head, but that is what being a modern woman, with luscious locks, strong farm arms, and devastatingly good aim is all about.
Some people think this has excluded her from contention, saying now she's "too controversial" to run alongside... Trump, which to me is laughable as it's barely even possible. There are lots of arguments being made, regarding "what Trump needs in a VP," as if Kamla Harris has some big shoes to fill. No, that's not possible, either.
It's a bit of a feeding frenzy, but in a way that feels familiar, too:
When Mexico sends it's people, they aren't sending their best. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.
Cue the debates. We set the political playbook on fire, again.
I'm more confident from an oddsmaking perspective that the Vice Presidential pick is in. I don't think this was a political mistake, I think it's a strategy having a lot to do with molding the perceptions about women. Personally, I would like to get my hands on one of those Trump/Noem bumper stickers I've been envisioning.
Trump/Noem: Make terrorists die like a dog, again.
P.S. Noem was recently announced as the keynote speaker at the California GOP 2024 Convention, in case you want to play along as oddsmakers. But hey, don't shoot the messenger!
