President Donald Trump and his ex, Elon Musk, are feuding again. Like that couple that were madly in love during their honeymoon phase but are now having to actually live with each other, the two nitpick and argue with each other in public, making it awkward for many... unless you're one of those Real Housewives types, then this is great fun.
Their disagreement is over the Big Beautiful Bill, a thing that has many conservatives split down the middle to the point where infighting is becoming common. As frustrating as that is, this is the Republican Party, and you're going to have individualists fighting over things this big. It's a feature, not a bug, and as frustrating as it can be, it's part of what keeps the Republican Party honest.
From Musk's perspective, his problem with the BBB is understandable, as he and others believe it would raise our debt ceiling by $3 to $5 trillion over the next decade, cripple future-tech jobs, and on a moral ground, they believe it betrays the promise made by Trump of fiscal conservatism. As Business Insider reported, Musk has vowed to punish any Republican who votes for this bill:
"Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame," Musk wrote on X on Monday afternoon. "And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth."
As such, Musk's been floating the idea to create another political party known as the "America Party."
To be clear, I don't disbelieve him. Musk is the kind of guy who says he's going to do something and then does it, so I don't take it merely as a threat, but I do think he knows very well what this Party could wind up doing.
Historically, third parties don't succeed. Even the Republican Party is billed as one, but technically, it was a replacement party for the Whigs which were dividing over slavery and collapsing internally.
I'm sure Musk knows that any third party is not going to suddenly become a massive contender in political circles. Even getting them on the ballot is a logistical nightmare. Ballot access laws vary by state, and need tens of thousands of signatures legal teams to establish itself as a legitimate party. Moreover, it has a severe lack of donors and organizers as this stage. He'd effectively be starting a movement cold and with little in the way of momentum. What momentum he will get off the bat won't be maintained, as the initial hype will fade as the reality starts to set in that the American Party may very well help get Democrats elected.
Because that's typically what third parties do, they distract voters from one side or another and help get their opponents elected.
I don't think Musk doesn't know that. He's one of the smartest people in America, and I'm pretty sure he understands everything I just told you. I bet he knows how Ross Perot took 19 percent of the vote in '92, and how Ralph Nader nabbed 90,000 votes in Florida in 2000 to screw over Al Gore.
But more than Musk knowing this, Republicans know this. They also know that Musk doesn't need to pull a large amount of the vote, just enough to create a real issue and threaten the Republican Party's 2025 plans and possibly its chances in the midterms. Five percent will do it, and five percent might be somewhat realistic for Musk to pull if he does create his third party.
Plenty of Republicans and conservatives feel disaffected by this bill, and with weighty politicians like Thomas Massie and Rand Paul giving it a thumbs down, the disaffection could turn into rejection if Musk gives these people somewhere to go.
When it comes to the Big-Not-So-Beautiful Bill, I’m asking one simple question:
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) June 29, 2025
Will the deficit be higher or lower next year?
The answer is clear: higher.
That’s why I’m voting no, and I urge my colleagues to ask themselves the same question before they vote. pic.twitter.com/9hjuePQRIW
Again, I don't think it will actually win any offices, but I do the America Party could scare enough Republicans into doing what Musk wants just to avoid having that challenge show up in their state or district.
I think Musk is playing his own chess game here, and he's using the threat of a third party to pressure Republicans into making changes. That may or may not work, but I do think it's a bold strategy. Sadly, I also believe that Musk will go through with the creation of this party if he doesn't get what he wants in order to punish Republicans, and that could have dire consequences.
