Emergency medical technicians disinfect their equipment after delivering a patient to Elmhurst Hospital Center, Saturday, April 4, 2020 in the Queens borough of New York. The new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms for most people, but for some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness or death. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
The more information that rolls in on the Wuhan coronavirus, the more we see that the pandemic may not be as deadly as we previously thought.
According to new projections, deaths due to COVID-19 are predicted to be far lower than previous models showed. As National Review reported on Monday, we’re looking at a whole new ballgame with not only a reduction in deaths but how many beds and resources we’d need:
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now projects 12 percent fewer deaths (81,766, down from 93,531). While estimates about daily deaths in the peak period have actually increased, it is believed the peak may come somewhat earlier and be shorter in duration.
What is truly gripping is the sudden reduction, from a projection made just three days earlier, of the estimate of how many hospital beds that will be needed at peak. On April 2, IHME predicted 262,092; on April 5, that was reduced to 140,823. The estimated needs for ICU beds and invasive ventilators were also slashed.
This is a significant number and should have our officials rethinking strategies and resource management, and while that’s good news it’s also boldly obvious that the projections our government relies on are woefully unreliable. This can be seen in the IHME’s lack of ability to predict what’s going on, even on the day it makes the prediction.
As the NRO reported, on April 5, the IHME said New York would need 24,000 hospital beds with 6,000 ICU patients. April 5 has come and gone and the numbers are in. New York had 16,479 people hospitalized with 4,376 ICU patients. That’s a third off from the predictions.
You can see see the visuals from former NYT reported Alex Berenson.
Here is the newly updated mIHME_UW model with predictions for NY state today (which doesn’t need to be predicted, as it’s already happened). And here’s the actual data from today. As you can see, the NEW model can’t even get today right. pic.twitter.com/4y2rat5jcz
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 6, 2020
If the expert’s projections are off by that much, then how much do you think they’ll be off down the line as time passes? Our leaders are using these models to brace for the worst and we should always be prepared for it. That’s true. However, as the data comes in, we should definitely be looking to readjust our timelines, especially as our economy continues to free fall and Americans are becoming more and more destitute, inviting in even more dangers than a virus proving to be less deadly as time goes on.
More information is always better and we definitely have a lot of blanks we need to fill in. However, the more of the puzzle we put together, and the more of the picture we see, the more it suggests that our reaction to the virus has been a bit extreme.
As Tucker Carlson recently pointed out, there’s a lot about this quarantine that doesn’t make any sense, and people are beginning to wonder if these measures are actually worth it.
We should probably begin looking into a more balanced approach.