Fauci: We Can't Really Rely on Coronavirus Models

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, speaks about the coronavirus in the James Brady Briefing Room, Tuesday, March 24, 2020, in Washington, as Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, listens. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)


When it comes to projections, the most sensational gets the most airtime thanks to the “if it bleeds it leads” philosophy the media has.

In fact, it wasn’t that long ago that The Hill was publishing models from the CDC that 160 to 210 million were going to contract the disease, putting the death count at some 200,000. The Imperial College, wich many models are based on, came out with their own that claimed 2.2 million Americans would die if the virus was left to spread. Our own administration has been using that model to plan our strategies.

It was an easy model to believe, given the number of unknowns around the virus at the time. However, the venerated Dr. Anthony Fauci is now warning us that believing models isn’t wise.

According to the Daily Wire, Fauci believes that relying on models is dicey due to the fact that there are a plethora of variables that affect outcomes:

During a recent task force meeting, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and one of the team’s leading voices, called into question modeling projections in general, according to the Post’s sources.

“I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models,” Dr. Fauci told other task force members this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the exchange.


We still don’t have any solid numbers as to how deadly the Wuhan Coronavirus will be for the United States but we do have clues. Those with better healthcare systems and higher preparedness have faired well against the virus. South Korea’s mortality rate currently sits at 0.6 percent. As the United States has a superior healthcare system and we took measures early on to make sure more of the virus wasn’t imported by shutting down our borders to various countries, we are positioned to have similar numbers to South Korea.

As I said in my recent article discussing this, it would appear that we’re actually set to make the decision on whether or not to end the quarantine sooner than later.

(READ: If This Is a War for Our Country, We’re Losing)

If Fauci doesn’t want us believing models, then we should ditch the ones we have been using and begin forming new strategies on the data we’ve collected so far. Our economy currently hangs by a thread, and the sooner we get to strengthening it, the better off we’ll all be as a country both monetarily and healthwise.


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