President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally, Thursday, Aug. 15, 2019, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
NBC polling on the impeachment of President Donald Trump shows that the nation is split down the middle on whether or not it should happen, but that’s not the interesting part.
The new NBC/Survey Monkey poll gets in the details about who is falling on which side when it comes to things like race, sex, and age. Nothing has changed much about the approval numbers for the impeachment proceedings down party lines. Republicans don’t want it by a vast majority (9/90) and Democrats do want it by more or less the same number (89/10).
The Republicans that do want it are, of course, the “Never Trump” crowd who are of the mind that Trump can do no right no matter what he does.
But that’s not surprising. What is surprising is looking at the Democrats who don’t want Trump impeached. According to NBC, this consists of a very diverse crowd of younger people:
About 6 in 10 Democrats who don’t think Trump should be impeached still disapprove of the job he’s doing as president. Still, 4 in 10 of those Democrats approve of the job he’s doing, compared to only 2 percent approval among Democrats who think he should be impeached. …
Again, in this group, a majority are white (56 percent) but 21 percent are Hispanic and 17 percent are black.
Forty-three percent of Democrats who don’t think Trump should be impeached are under 45 years.
This is significant for two reasons. The first is that it may have something of an impact on the election. As Ed Morrissey of Hot Air highlighted, the geographic location of these voters could not only tilt the election further for Trump in 2020, but that little chunk could also have something of an effect on the House races:
NBC doesn’t mention the geographic distribution of these Democrats, but it might be more important than their ethnic or age demos. If these come mainly in suburban areas, it might turn into a real headache next year for Democrats. It would have a subtle impact on their ability to win the presidential election, but such a development would have a major impact on their ability to hold the House majority. Can we assume that the 51% who either didn’t vote in 2016 or voted for Trump came primarily from the suburbs? Probably not, although that seems a little more likely than the urban cores. Perhaps NBC can follow up with more data on regional distribution.
The other problem, and possibly the longer lasting one for Democrats, is that it shows that their narrative isn’t resonating as well as they’d like with groups they took for granted as belonging to them. Younger, minority crowds whom Democrats counted on as static voters (or at least supportive non-voters) have turned away.
The question is “why?” The right has launched several campaigns and figures from minority communities have begun stepping up to proclaim they’re turning their backs on the Democrats more than ever. Be it Candace Owens or Kanye, the trend is up and shows no signs of slowing down.
Zogby Analytics cobbled together approval ratings from minority communities and found that Trump’s support among minorities has been rising:
Race also played a factor in Trump’s job approval rating. Hispanics, this time around, were much more likely to approve of his job performance (49% approve/51% disapprove), while the president also saw his numbers jump with African Americans. This was his second straight poll with over a quarter support from African Americans (28% approve/70% disapprove). If Trump wins half of Hispanics and a quarter of African Americans in 2020, Democrats will be in trouble!
All this shows that Democrats are losing ground with minority Americans. What’s more, they’re young to boot. If this continues, then Democrats may have more trouble on their hands for years to come than just in 2020.