As we go into midterms, it’s unclear how things will ultimately be decided in the House, but a new poll from Rasmussen is suggesting that Republicans will do better than many originally thought.
Rasmussen reports that a mixed survey found voters more likely to vote Republican by one point than Democrats:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This comes after Democrats held a solid lead, but began to flounder after the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Since then, Democrats have struggled to regain their foothold, but now we see Republicans overtaking them according to Rasmussen who has been conducting these weekly polls:
A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead. Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until early last month. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.
The GOP now has a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But significantly, 20% of these voters remain undecided or prefer someone other than the Republican or Democratic candidates.
While one point may not seem like much, two factors should be considered here. A solid lead was had and lost by the Democrats, which is obvious. However, not so obvious is the fact that Democrats tend to speak louder about their voting habits than Republicans do, possibly putting Republicans even higher than the Rasmussen poll indicates.
Rasmussen points to the fact that in 2016, Democrats were very outspoken about their support for Hillary Clinton, making it seem like she was the surefire win with massive leads in the polls. However, Trump walked away with the victory against all odds. Rasmussen paid attention to this and asked its readers an important question.
“Just as in 2016, Democrats are more outspoken about how they’re going to vote in the upcoming elections than Republicans and unaffiliated voters are. Is it possible that another silent red wave is coming?” asked Rasmussen.
If history repeats itself, then one percentage point that Republicans have pulled ahead with may be a more dooming number.
We’ll know very soon, but in the meantime, Democrats should be very worried about that one percent number.