A Look At the ‘Superman’ Weekend Results Shows One Telling Data Point

There has been plenty of talk about the summer tentpole release "Superman," the attempt by Warner Bros. and DC Comics Films to reestablish the hallmark superhero in their character stable. Again. Everything centered on this release is concerning a new direction: A new plotline, a new actor in the lead role, and most importantly, a new director in James Gunn, who has been tabbed to take over the DC Cinematic Universe (the DCU).

That all said, this weekend carried much import for the studio and the future of its DC franchise, which was why it was rather baffling when Gunn elected to come out with some polarizing comments while out on the PR tour for his summer blockbuster. He decided it might be wise to turn political and declare that, as his origin story goes, his Superman is an immigrant. He then went on to tell those potentially offended, “screw them.”

Now, full disclosure, I’m not a studio executive nor am I a director/producer charged with relaunching a mega-million dollar film franchise. That said, I find it wrongheaded to introduce topics of a distancing nature that may repel potential ticket buyers. I guess call it Hollywood hubris. But as Katie Jerkovich covered this week, Gunn began hedging his bets and downplaying the need for his vision of Clark Kent to become a monster hit. Well, as we are now into Sunday, there is a measure of the performance of the film. So, how did it go?

It did well, if not heroically.

The Thursday preview and Friday debut saw the film cresting the $50 million mark, and it held on well enough through Saturday and Sunday to deliver an estimated $122 million weekend. This should be a good enough performance for the studio and Gunn to breathe a sigh of relief, but doubtful they are popping too many bottles of Moet come Monday. Maybe some Asti would be more apt.

The question is, can we see Gunn’s words impacting things at all? There was one telling metric deep in the data. Box office analytical firm EntTelligence measures the performance of theaters based on political regions. Looking over the returns, the company reported that theaters in blue counties delivered about two-thirds of the ticket sales, while red counties accounted for 33 percent of sales. Clearly, there was a lack of motivation to be seen. It has been argued that finding trends in normal ranges for PG-13 releases, but this is a film that is not your average release, and it needed to perform beyond the average.

It appears fair to say that the audiences in red states were not driven to come out for this release, and it has to be argued that Gunn did not help his cause with that segment of the audience. This is a film that needed to overperform, based on the fact that it is launching the new phase of the DCU, with Gunn taking on a role equivalent to Marvel’s Kevin Feige. The “Superman” director is overseeing all of the upcoming releases, determining which characters and films will be released, and is calling the casting of the leads. So yes, Gunn had much riding on this debut in his tenure.

In 2017, "Justice League" failed to deliver, and while it made over $660 million globally, the film was a money-losing venture, and its plan to launch a spate of new DC character films did not materialize. The Wonder Woman films stopped at two, Aquaman had one decent performance, The Flash became a debacle on numerous levels, and there was never a Cyborg film crafted. Though this weekend was not found to be at that level of failure, it still hovers in a nebulous range for the long-term prospects of Gunn’s DCU.

Looking into the numbers is how to get a measure of things. So far, "Superman" stands as the third-best opening of the year, trailing “The Minecraft Movie” and “Lilo & Stitch.” One might expect a top-flight superhero film to at least do better than a rebooted live-action remake of a mild Disney hit. The audience scores were also good if not great, as the exit ratings came in at an “A-”, which is usually seen as running in the average-to-good range. Not a solid sign of long-term health for the film.

This compares greatly with the 2013 Superman release “Man Of Steel”, with Henry Cavill in the lead role. That film had a similar opening, at $125 million, and also sported the same audience score. It went on to earn just under $300 million domestically and $670 million globally. So yes, you can now understand Gunn downplaying the need to hit $700 million. But that figure is realistic for profits to be realized. Sporting a shooting budget of 225 million, and estimated marketing costs at another $100 million, this will need to climb into those levels for profitability to be a reality.

Then you have to factor in the importance of this relaunch of the DCU. Given that added pressure, this is not an eye-popping debut. The true test will be in how the film legs out over the coming months, and it will not be an easy ride. Clark Kent is currently battling the recent "Jurassic World” release that is doing very well, and Marvel has “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” arriving in two weeks. But maybe that cast also delivering woke challenges to the audience could impede their success and help out Gunn in the end.

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