Scott and Brad dig into why the polls are so often flagrantly incorrect, and what details you should watch for in the coming weeks.
As a precursor to the vice presidential debate, fellow RedState frontpage writer Scott Hounsell joined me on KLRN Radio to discuss the election and the impacts we are seeing in various parts of the country. Specifically, the talk centered on polls, which is Scott’s area of study, and the flawed methods going into these news drivers.
Scott confirmed what most people who follow elections may have suspected, which is that in the months leading up to the election, the polls are less reflective of the true intent of voters and are instead used to influence the electorate. As such, what is far too commonplace is that the sampling of the respondents are skewed to favor Democrat candidates and deliver an intended result.
Our talk ranged from solely polling talk to also delve into a more representative activity, and that is party voter registrations. In particular states — including the important swing states of Pennsylvania and Florida — we are seeing the Republicans signing up new voters at a greatly weighted ratio, and there is an additional telling fact. The voters who are switching parties are also in favor of the GOP.
As Scott confirmed, this is a more representative metric because you are looking at a more involved sector of the voting base and a more active one at the polls. Our talk covered a number of regions across the country and even looked into the flawed methods in Florida, where pollsters regard the Hispanic voter as a solitary entity when in fact the individuals from different regions in Latin America are likely to behave and react in a different manner from each other.
This was a deeply informative and eye-opening discussion that will help you frame the upcoming election in more accurate terms. Take a listen below!