The RedState Box Office Report - Not Much of a Marvel Sophomore Slump


With a comic book behemoth in the heart of its release there is very little else at play. Even with a high number of new titles they are actually smaller niche pictures operating with the hope of drawing the interest of those who have already been to the Marvel spectacle. No studio wants to release a film with a higher investment in the wake of a blockbuster.

It is a sign of how much this year has been lagging that last week’s debut brought the total box office for the weekend higher than 2018 for the first time. Really the main interest of this weekend was, how much would the run-up film to “Avengers: Endgame” dip in its second frame? In typical MArvel fashion it is holding up well.

CAPTAIN MARVEL – $69.31 Million
There was some light speculation on how much of a drop the contested female hero would experience in week #2, and as it turned out she performed right along expectations, and following the typical performance of these front-loaded hero pics. Taking what is typical of Marvel films of a -55% drop means this has been seeing returns slightly better than anticipated. After just ten days this title has already vacuumed up $266 million.

2. WONDER PARK – $16.0m
A highly problematic animated release for Paramount. The studio had internal problems, script troubles, and ultimately scheduling conflicts as a result of numerous delays. This has been a five year project and Paramount Animation went through a change in its executive offices. Then the original director, Dylan Brown, was fired from the production just over a year ago, caught up in his own #MeToo scandal. Finally there were story problems as they saw things, and by this point the film was in need of a release just to cut the losses. Clearly opening with a Marvel film hogging the attention AND another hit animated title still playing in the top-5 is not the best option, but there were few alternatives for the studio.

3. FIVE FEET APART – $13.15m
A teen romance film with a very small budget was hoped for as a counter-programming move against a male-centered comic book audience. It performed better than expected (projections were around $10 million) this means that the CBS partner with Lionsgate — which seems to have a handle on these cheaper teen dramas — should see a profit if it crosses the $20 million level, which seems rather likely.

After a month now it is still on 3,700 screens, so despite some heavy competition it is managing to hold up. Overseas it has added another $330 million, so this is a clear success and could lead to questions of extending the series that is supposed to be wrapped up with this film.

The last of the films with Perry’s popular character it has been strong, probably set to land as the third-highest grossing of the nine titles centered on his matriarch.

6. NO MANCHES FRIDA 2 – $3.89m
A sequel to a hit Mexican comedy from 2016, this return matches the run of the original, though showing on under 500 screens.

An embarrassing return for a futuristic sci-fi thriller, as it is playing on over five times as many screens as “No Manches”, and surely costing more to be made.

Certainly this has been looked at as a disappointment, but one saving grace: it becomes the fifth title to earn $100 million this year. It is not getting much of a bailout from foreign markets, as they have only drawn an additional $70 million.

This James Cameron effort has been a pricey failure for Fox, as it cost $170 million, before marketing expenses are added in. Overseas it has done much better, and it will be a while before we know if this managed to hit the break even mark.

10. GREEN BOOK – $1.27m
The Academy Award winning film has been on a longer trip than the one shown in the movie itself!

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