With Kamala Harris set to announce her running mate on Tuesday, there are numerous signs that the choice has already been made. The first clue was the scheduling of a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on the same day. The governor of that state is Josh Shapiro, and he's already been rumored to be the front-runner.

SEE: And Then There Were Three, Kamala Harris Narrows VP List 

Now, we might have something close to confirmation. According to a new report, Shapiro suddenly canceled several fundraisers he was set to hold over the weekend for his campaign committee. Either this is a massive head-fake with Shapiro playing the sucker, or he's the guy. 

Gov. Shapiro cancels weekend fundraisers in the Hamptons

Shapiro’s “trip was planned several weeks ago and included several fundraisers for his own campaign committee,” spox Manuel Bonder said. “His schedule has changed and he is no longer traveling to the Hamptons this weekend”

— Allan Smith (@akarl_smith) August 1, 2024

If you don't know who Shapiro is, he got the governorship during the 2022 mid-terms with a decisive victory over Republican Doug Mastriano. Since then, he's settled in as a very popular figure in Pennsylvania, evidenced by his 61 percent approval rating. That image is largely based on the idea that Shapiro is a conciliatory "moderate" compared to many other Democrats. When you dig into his positions, he's not, but perception is everything.

I won't sugarcoat it. If Harris does end up picking Shapiro, it is the best case for her campaign and the worst case for Donald Trump's effort. Most Republicans have been rooting for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be chosen for a reason. He is a much weaker figure in a state that just doesn't matter that much. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly has been the third name on the list, and he's simply not near the political talent that Shapiro has on the campaign trail. Arizona is also more firmly in the Trump column at this point.

With Pennsylvania already being a one to two-point race in the most recent polling, Shapiro could be the difference. All he has to do is shift a relatively small number of votes at the margins to push Harris over the top. 

Does he help in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, though? That's a different question. Some polling has shown that he actually helps Trump in Michigan, meaning Shapiro's appeal may be largely limited to his home state. 

Still, Pennsylvania is a major prize. While there are certainly other paths for Trump to win the presidency, if he loses there, the odds swing significantly in Harris' favor. The big three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin usually track very closely in presidential races, and counting on that to change this year is probably a bad bet. 

This race is now wide open, and Republicans can't take anything for granted. Trump can't miss layups when they are available, and the RNC better have the ground game to end all ground games. The stakes are too high to not contest this race in every way possible. Shapiro makes things tougher, but he's only a deciding factor if Republicans allow him to be.