We may only be a few days past the last election, but the talk of 2024 is already heating up on both sides. Donald Trump is expected to announce yet another run for president on Tuesday. Opinions on how successful it will be have varied wildly, but we’ll have nearly two years to find out.

What about Joe Biden, though? He’s been all over the place when asked about running for re-election, with his resolve seeming to harden over the summer leading up to the 2022 election. After Republicans unexpectedly got shellacked, the assumption then moved to it being assured. Why wouldn’t Biden run again? He just dodged the biggest mid-term bullet in decades while holding an approval rating in the low-40s.

The sense of invincibility has been palpable, and as much as I hate to say it, somewhat earned. There was no logical reason for Democrats to do well, but it happened anyway for a variety of inexcusable reasons, in my opinion.

And yet, maybe Biden isn’t not going to run again.

President Biden: "My intention is that I run again, but I'm a great respecter of fate. This is ultimately a family decision. I think everybody wants me to run, but we're gonna have discussions about it. I don't feel any any hurry one way or another to make that judgment." pic.twitter.com/v4Trd1U2hV

— The Hill (@thehill) November 13, 2022

First of all, no one wants him to run again. Exit polls showed large majorities have a desire for him to leave the national stage as quickly as possible. Nothing that happened in the last election was an endorsement of Biden’s horrific governance. Quite the opposite, as popular, effective GOP governors in states like Georgia, Florida, and Texas all well overperformed. Arizona may yet have a Republican governor as well by the time the counting finally stops.

Still, if after Tuesday’s drumming of the GOP, Biden still can’t commit to an attempt at a second term, I’d start to put my money on him bowing out sometime in mid-2023. No, I don’t think he’s going to resign from office unless his already markedly mental decline worsens, but he has to make a decision on 2024 soon because his party has to hold a primary. So while he may not “feel pressed,” the pressure is absolutely there, and his waffling is going to reassure no one, one way or the other.

I’ve been proven wrong before, most recently in my prediction of the GOP doing reasonably well in the 2022 mid-terms, but I’ll still maintain that Biden can’t be expected to run again. I think there’s too much going on behind the scenes with his clear descent into senility to allow it. Democrats know they have to go in a different direction because Republicans may actually wise up and not outright blow the next election. That requires a primary, and it’s one that could get really nasty given many of its participants currently serve in the administration. Does Biden want to risk the humiliation of losing when he has the perfect excuse (his age) to walk away (falsely) claiming a positive legacy? Color me skeptical.