As we headed into mid-October, I sent out a warning to conservatives, telling them that the preferred cope of the left was about to change. After months of poll watching and suggestions that Democrats were resurgent, the generic ballot had finally settled in exactly where most expected it to, showing a modest Republican lead.

That meant that a new cope had to be instituted, and the early voting season has provided it. If you pay attention to leftwing election bro Twitter, you’d be under the impression that Democrats are killing it with early voting, pointing to an overperformance come November 8th.

Of course, as I’ve explained, early voting data is highly dubious given its record of not being predictive and the fact we have no idea who has actually voted for who. The entire point of projecting a change in power is the idea that persuadable voters could be persuaded. You can’t simply tally up “Republican” and “Democrat” ballots and come to any reasonable conclusion, never mind that early voting trends (i.e. how much each party utilizes it) vary wildly by cycle.

By comparison, some of us have been consistent all year about how this election is going to go, not because we have some secret insight, but because we are grounded enough to not dismiss the fundamentals that are staring everyone in the face. It has been clear for a long time that this was going to be a tough environment for Democrats. They are not only facing historical headwinds in dealing with a first mid-term for a new president, but the kitchen table issues are also not in their favor. Shouting about abortion was never going to be enough.

With that said, more red flags are emerging in the final stretch, and if you want an idea of how bad things are going for the Democrats, pay attention to those who are throwing millions of dollars around to influence the vote. It’s easy to make posts on social media pumping out the hopium. It’s a different thing when decisions are being made about how to spend large amounts of cash.

Case in point, Democrats are abandoning a heavily blue district in Oregon in an attempt to save an even bluer district in Oregon.

Sign of the times.

Dems are abandoning a Biden +9 district to try and salvage a Biden +13 district.

YIKES. #OR05 pic.twitter.com/cCBieCA9IM

— Michael McAdams (@M_McAdams) October 25, 2022

That is not something a party that is contending for the House majority does. If there was any chance of Nancy Pelosi remaining Speaker of the House, both of those Oregon districts would be safe. That they aren’t safe tells us a lot about the electoral environment Democrats are facing as voters are already heading to the polls. Not the electoral environment being spun by pollsters and election analysts to generate clicks and likes, but how things are actually going on the ground.

On a broader level, projections of a larger GOP majority are entering the chat as well, another thing some of us said would happen. These pollsters and analysts all try to tailor their results closer to reality in the final weeks because they don’t want to be accused of being non-credible. Never mind that they spewed misleading trash all summer, but I digress.

Fox News has now shifted its model to show a 230+ seat majority for the GOP. And to be clear, Fox News has consistently been one of the most friendly pollsters to the Democrats all cycle, showing a threadbare GOP majority until recently.

🚨 FOX POWER RANKINGS

✅ 5 races shift towards Republicans

U.S. House
Republicans — 233
Democrats — 202 https://t.co/y3i7V3ejAx pic.twitter.com/VKvoZ2MuUG

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2022

Still, some are going to keep obsessing over early voting returns from Clark County and mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania. Perhaps we’ll see some surprises on the margins, but the overall fundamentals remain the same and have never changed this entire cycle. The Republican Party is in the driver’s seat, and you can get ready for a GOP majority in January.