PA Senate Update: Oz and McCormick Neck and Neck, Here's What Happens Next

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Because Pennsylvania’s voting system remains an absolute dumpster fire, there was no resolution in Tuesday’s GOP Senate primary by the end of the night.


What we do know is that Kathy Barnette, who saw a late surge in the polls, is officially out of the running. While she garnered nearly 25 percent of the vote, an impressive showing, her rise during the campaign occurred at a point where she just didn’t factor enough in early voting to be competitive. Had she been on people’s radar a month ago, things may have been different, and the situation serves as another reminder of why early voting is absolutely asinine.

That leaves Mehmet Oz and David McCormick locked in an incredibly tight battle for the nomination. The latest count has Oz up a little over 2,000 votes.

Normally, one would assume Oz has it wrapped up, but again, because Pennsylvania’s voting system is a dumpster fire, there are outstanding ballots left, some of which won’t be counted until Friday. Further, most of the ballots still to be tabulated are mail-in ballots, where McCormick has enjoyed a nine percent advantage. Yet, to complicate matters further, some of those ballots are in Lancaster County, which favors Oz.

Here’s an explanation of where things go from here.


In other words, it’s a toss-up at this moment. Still, I’d always want to be the person in the lead this late in the game, so my personal opinion is that Oz is the favorite to pull this thing out. Bear in mind — a difference of 0.5 percent of the vote or less will mean an automatic recount.

Everything will come down to how the outstanding mail-in ballots fall. Will they remain pro-McCormick at the rate necessary? Or did Trump’s late endorsement of Oz shift the final mail-in away from McCormick? Unfortunately, it could be days before we have a final answer, and that’s simply unacceptable. Pennsylvania needs real election reform, and until it gets it, people will remain skeptical of the process.


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