Throughout the night, as the count crosses 50 percent and leads into the night, RedState will be doing some quick-hitting analysis on where the race stands.
As of now, it’s too close to call, but Glenn Youngkin is doing well in the areas he needed to do well in to have a shot at beating Terry McAuliffe. With Fairfax County announcing a delay in much of its reporting, though, things could flip on a dime.
Here’s an idea of where things stand at the halfway point.
Youngkin is rolling up huge margins in rural VA, making a lot of headway in outer suburbs and doing better than I'd have expected among in-person early voters. He's in the driver's seat right now. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
Horrific for T-Mac https://t.co/zfT1iLEwYP
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) November 3, 2021
Another great SW result for Youngkin: Wythe (98% reporting per DDHQ) – 84-16 GY, 11k votes cast. Was 74-25, 8.5k cast in 2017. Remember that Northam won by 9, so GY is looking for roughly 10-pt improvements (which he got here)
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) November 2, 2021
Loudoun Co.: up to 128k votes counted, and McAuliffe winning there by just 53%-47%. McAuliffe better hope for a huge showing in the remaining VBM, but Youngkin performed *much* better than I expected w/ the early vote. Advantage: Youngkin. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
Northumberland Co. (Northern Neck, rural): Youngkin needed to win it by 26%, per my benchmarks. He wins it by 29%, w/ higher than expected turnout. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
Now at 888 precincts: picture unchanged. Youngkin still ever so slightly running ahead of his targets, including nearly everywhere in the state.
If the needle was on the internet, it would be pointing his way pic.twitter.com/s0V2I1uPtl— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2021
Youngkin running 15 points ahead of Trump in the City of Manassas (almost fully in)
— Tony (@realtonysm1th) November 2, 2021
Lots of smart people and analysts are on Twitter. Races shouldn't be called here casually, but it's obvious that this is a big GOP night in VA. #VAGovernor
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) November 3, 2021
Youngkin up almost 11 points in Chesterfield County. Biden won by 5 points in 2020. A 16-point swing this far.
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) November 3, 2021
A Republican landslide in Culpeper County unlike anything I've ever seen in my entire life.
This is with 100% of the vote in.
Trump only won this county by 20 points last year.
Youngkin just won it by over 33…. pic.twitter.com/ZLnaCulb81
— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) November 3, 2021
Culpeper: Youngkin needed to win it by 30%, per my benchmarks. He wins it by 34%. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
*aren't really any bright spots
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2021
Loudoun Co.: McAuliffe lead up to 55%-44% w/ mail ballots now reporting. Per my benchmarks, McAuliffe needed to win it by 14%. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
As of now, you’d rather be Youngkin than Terry McAuliffe, but it’s not over until it’s over. Stick with RedState for more coverage as the night drags on.
