While the national polling still shows Joe Biden with a comfortable lead in the election, other factors are starting to come into view that have the left worried. We’ve seen state polls showing Trump highly competitive in the states in which he needs to contend. We’ve also seen numbers on things like the Black voter share that have CNN breaking out into cold sweats.
But the latest freak out involves the Latino vote. Polling is showing Trump making inroads with a demographic that he’s not supposed to be able to court. That’s if you believe the conventional wisdom, though, and we all witnessed the lack of value that holds back in 2016.
The fear is palpable.
Latino groups warn that Biden’s sluggish outreach to their voters could hurt in November https://t.co/c52UsQzwLE
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) September 14, 2020
In the past two days, we’ve seen other articles pop up with the same theme. NBC wrote Trump Sees a Boost With Latino Voters, What Is Biden Doing About It? in what can only be described as a plea to the Biden campaign to pick up the pace. Local outlets in Arizona are also showing a bit of panic.
The media can’t figure this out. Trump’s hard-line views on immigration were supposed to doom him with the Hispanic community. Yet, as they so often have been, the media were wrong again. They miscalculated that Latinos have other priorities aside from whether someone they don’t even know is allowed to enter the country immediately. The treating of demographics as monoliths is showing signs of backfiring on the Democrats.
This is an especially big problem in places like Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. While the latter two have trended blue, Nevada was still very close in 2016. Any shift in the Hispanic vote there could put Trump over the top. But Florida has always been the key to the election and Trump’s inroads are paying dividends there, with Biden only showing a 1.2% lead in the average now. The President is well within striking distance now and we haven’t even gotten to the debates yet.
Meanwhile, here was the “Latinos for Joe Biden” counter-rally in Nevada.
The Latinos for Biden Parade in Las Vegas today was just flat out embarrassing pic.twitter.com/6tpxHTYEDi
— Courtney Holland 🇺🇸 Text COURTNEY to 88022 (@hollandcourtney) September 14, 2020
If Trump can pull this off in November and do it with a higher share of the Hispanic vote, it’s going to be a deep repudiation of Democrat politics. It’s also going to signal a new horizon when it comes to how groups that are normally divided along racial lines by the media can actually have varying opinions and positions. Trump needs to keep the pressure on and the outreach at the highest levels. The signs that its working are encouraging.
(Please follow me on Twitter! @bonchieredstate)