Bernie Sanders by DonkeyHotey, licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0/Original

Here we go.

Bernie Sanders sent a warning shot across the bow of the DNC establishment tonight in an interview on MSNBC. In the interview, he was discussing what would happen if someone showed up at the convention in July with a plurality of delegates but was then denied the nomination. This was his answer.

Bernie w/ a bit of a warning shot, tells @chrishayes it would be "very divisive" if a candidate gets a clear plurality but not majority of the delegates and the party doesn't nominate that person at the convention. pic.twitter.com/2i3Ei1EXo0

— Alex Thompson (@AlxThomp) February 13, 2020

This is what I’ve been speculating the past few weeks. A brokered convention is not only possible, but it’s likely at this point if Bernie doesn’t win outright. There’s simply no one else who looks to consolidate enough voters prior to Super Tuesday to shut set themselves up for a majority. We know that Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg are locks to still be in it by the time the voting starts on March 3rd, and remember, almost 40% of the delegates will have been handed out by the time the results are counted. I can’t envision a scenario where those three don’t splinter the vote and Bernie doesn’t at least do well enough to maintain a plurality. From there, we head west to states that will further favor Bernie.

What all that adds up to is the DNC being faced with Bernie holding a plurality of delegates once the convention starts. If that happens, the dealing will start and he very well could be denied by an alliance between other candidates. Then what?

Full-scale civil war is what. Bernie is not going to go quietly and his supporters certainly aren’t. His comments in this interview are a reminder to Democrats that he holds a lot of leverage over their 2020 chances. He’s not wrong.