The FBI has ruled out the possibility of ISIS being responsible for the Las Vegas shooting, but New York Times ISIS correspondent Rukmini Callimachi isn’t as sure.  Given her credible reporting on ISIS in the past, her thread of tweets posted today is certainly worth reading:

1. After ISIS claimed Vegas, I was waiting for them to release Naba, their weekly newsletter, to see if anything new emerged. Naba is out: pic.twitter.com/yX8AN3OdSX

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

2. Under a picture of the Mandalay Bay drenched in blood they rehash the attack. New info: They are now claiming shooter converted 6 mos ago pic.twitter.com/2t53MSBNHq

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

3. Below is the @siteintelgroup translation. ISIS earlier said shooter converted "months ago." Now they're saying it was 6 mos specifically pic.twitter.com/Lo6hF1S65M

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

4. No proof is provided, but ISIS has rarely claimed attacks that were not by either their members or sympathizers.

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

5. ISIS members meanwhile are pointing out that after ISIS downed Metrojet over Sinai, no one believed them: pic.twitter.com/8oF4skW8VK

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

6. In their chatrooms, they are claiming that the West and the media is leading a cover-up in order to hide the "martyrdom" of their brother

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

7. I don't take ISIS' claim at face value. And so far, 0 evidence tying this attack to ISIS has emerged.

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

8. But here's why I disagree with those rejecting it out of hand. I've been covering ISIS since 2014 and since then I have kept a timeline

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

9. Everytime ISIS claimed an attack in West, I jotted it down. Month later, I've gone back over list & annotated what investigation found

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

10. My list is not complete but of the more than 50 cases I have annotated, I could only find 3 false claims.

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

11. Yes, the group frequently exaggerates death tolls & yes, they inflate & distort details, but the crux of the claim is typically correct

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

12. The thing to understand is ISIS considers an attack to be their handiwork if the attacker is sent by them or if he is inspired by them.

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

13. The reason I don't buy argument that they are now opportunistically claiming attacks to deflect from battlefield losses is as follows pic.twitter.com/mJNj4LXVnj

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

14. Beyond the attacks they've claimed, there are many more they could have claimed but didn't. These are attacks where we know it was them

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

15. Remember the Thalys train shouting? They never claimed it. Attacker shared a hotel room with Abdlehamid Abaaoud, leader of Paris attack pic.twitter.com/1E536rRI2X

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

16. Remember the attack on the Jewish Museum in Brussels? Attacker was 1 of ISIS' jailers who held European hostages. Yet they never claimed pic.twitter.com/i8l5fiQlgA

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

17. Do you remember the devastating attack on the Istanbul airport last year? Investigation determined it was ISIS. Again they did not claim pic.twitter.com/UuRWpN9NlI

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

18. And 1 day before Vegas on Saturday, a guy who'd placed ISIS flag on his car's dashboard used it to ram police. Did ISIS claim it? Nope pic.twitter.com/HXGVkRovxK

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

19 Does this mean ISIS had a role in Vegas? There is as yet 0 evidence of that. My point: This group has been more right than its been wrong

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

20. Given ISIS' insistence, I'm with @AmarAmarasingam: Have any reporters asked Paddock's brother and other family members if he converted?

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 5, 2017

While we don’t have any evidence of ISIS involvement, Callimachi’s observations are enough to keep us all wondering as we wait for more information about the shooter’s motives. Couple that with this ISIS video appearing to threaten Las Vegas, and we’re a long way from knowing exactly what motivated Paddock’s atrocious actions.