Arizona Election Preview: Latest Polling in US Senate Race, GOP Outpaces Dems in EV, SoS Releases List

It's finally here! At the time of this writing, polls open in just about 15 minutes in my state of Arizona, and the past few days have been anything but quiet. Since most people likely have been too occupied with living their everyday lives rather than following the last-minute news of the 2024 general election cycle, I decided to give readers a brief recap--and a look ahead to Election Night in the Copper State. If you have your java of choice in hand, let's go!

Some of the biggest news relates to the office of Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, whom you might not be surprised is a Democrat. I previously wrote about the legal fight about the 218,000 voter registrations without proof of citizenship on file. It appears this was caused by a tech glitch at the Motor Vehicles Department, which flagged Arizonans improperly, and kept county recorders from assuring all legal voters can vote. Fontes refused to provide the list, even filing several appeals in state courts.

The good side won on Monday, with a Superior Court (appeals) judge ordering SoS Fontes to comply:

Arizona Secretary of State @Adrian_Fontes will have to provide conservative groups a list of the 218k voters who were incorrectly labeled as already providing proof of citizenship by noon today, under new appeals court decision.

Key: The groups intend to… pic.twitter.com/hxV1t8vp4L
— Jen Fifield (@JenAFifield) November 4, 2024

Fifield continues:

The groups intend to send the list to county recorders. I’m not sure if they have it or not at this point. But I know with the whole problem I was reporting on this weekend it might be nice for them to have it to check their voters’ statuses? Not sure.

🥳FONTES = 0; TRANSPARENCY = WINNING!✅

Despite AZ Secretary Adrian Fontes' best efforts to falsely paint @AZHouseGOP @AZSenateGOP as homicidal maniacs (totally unhinged argument not remotely grounded in reality), while he's also actively preventing Recorders from having access… pic.twitter.com/ZlPl4JhhQi
— Merissa Hamilton 🗳 ⛽ 🗽🔥 (@merissahamilton) October 31, 2024

It reads:

Despite AZ Secretary Adrian Fontes' best efforts to falsely paint @AZHouseGOP @AZSenateGOP as homicidal maniacs (totally unhinged argument not remotely grounded in reality), while he's also actively preventing Recorders from having access to do their jobs ...
The Honorable Judge Blaney ruled in our favor in requiring Fontes to release to http://EZAZ.org the 98k voters impacted by the MVD "glitch" causing voters to not have proof of citizenship on record
Our only intent has always been to ensure the Recorders and Legislative leadership can do their jobs! And legal voters are enfranchised with confidence that their government is following the law in the operation of the elections!
Now that will happen! And the reputation of our happy, hardworking volunteers at http://EZAZ.org is restored!

And he finally did at around 10 p.m. MST (remember that AZ does not change its clocks):

When AZ SOS announced the MVD Glitch, he promised to notify the Affected Voters.

He didn’t.

Then he carefully guarded the list, not even giving it to County Recorders.

Today, he FINALLY gave voters the tools to see if they are on The List.

Go to https://t.co/ywfcjJQGNX and… pic.twitter.com/ZMMoTmqm72
— Jen Wright (@JenWEsq) November 5, 2024

The X post reads:

When AZ SOS announced the MVD Glitch, he promised to notify the Affected Voters.
He didn’t.
Then he carefully guarded the list, not even giving it to County Recorders.
Today, he FINALLY gave voters the tools to see if they are on The List.
Go to http://my.Arizona.vote and sign in to check if you are on The List.

There's great news on early voting, which Republicans in Arizona now lead by almost 200,000!

🚨 BREAKING: Arizona Republicans AGAIN expand their early voting lead - now to nearly 200K VOTERS.

🔴 REP: 40.8% [954,306]
🔵 DEM: 32.4% [758,342]
🟡 OTH: 26.8% [625,731]
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

My colleague Bob Hoge wrote on Monday about the cycle's positive, national trend for Republicans on EV:

What this means: Every Arizona congressional district looks secure, based on EV ballot returns:

🚨All Arizona Congressional Districts currently held by Republicans, are leading in GOP ballot returns.

CD 1 🟥 +32,909
CD 2 🟥 +46,848
CD 5 🟥 +60,743
CD 6 🟥 +1,256
CD 8 🟥 +47,357
CD 9 🟥 +68,635

Arizona is looking to keep its GOP majority Congressional delegation.
— Jeremiah Cota ✝️🇺🇸 #NativesForTrump (@jeremiahcota) November 2, 2024

If you need a refresher, here are the Republican candidates for those districts:

Arizona you need to get out and vote for all of our Republican nominees for Congress

CD1 @DavidSchweikert
CD2 @EliCraneAZ
CD4 @KellyCooperAZ
CD5 @andybiggs4az
CD6 @JuanCiscomani
CD8 @AbrahamHamadeh
CD9 @DrPaulGosar

The House majority runs through Arizona!
— Nico Delgado 🇺🇸 (@NicoDelgadoAZ) October 28, 2024

What about the hotly contested swing state, U.S. Senate race between Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ)? According to the latest poll by pollster AtlasIntel, Lake leads the liberal Dem for the first time, 48.4 percent to 47.8 percent (0.6):

📊 Final AZ SENATE poll by AtlasIntel

🟥 Lake: 48.4% (+0.6)
🟦 Gallego: 47.8%
🟪 Other: 1.4%

22 (2.7/3.0) | 11/3-4 | 875 LVhttps://t.co/cRV5xT1TgN. pic.twitter.com/aX2q5j9Ss3
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 5, 2024

Pair of New Polls Just Dropped and They Show Lake Beating Gallego in AZ Senate Race

A final reminder for my fellow Arizonans: Our polls close at 7 p.m. If you're in line at or before 7:00, you must be allowed to cast your ballot. Stay in line! If, like me, you voted early/by mail-in ballot, you can easily check the status of your ballot here.

Lastly, a hopeful reminder about what the Arizona GOP is concentrating on--and spending its money on--this cycle. There's one thing you aren't going to see on Election Night (and no, I don't mean election results):

This year, we’re skipping the Election Night party & putting every dollar into what matters: WINNING!

We have raised $9+ million in 3 months under @GinaSwoboda — we’re ALL IN for Trump & growing our GOP majorities in Congress & the AZ Legislature.

Onward to victory!🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/WP0qZftfkv
— Republican Party of Arizona (@AZGOP) October 16, 2024