Biden Veepstakes Heats up, With Top Dem Pollster Pushing Warren -- But Look at Harris' Numbers

AP Photo/John Minchillo

The speculation over which Democratic woman Joe Biden will tap for his vice presidential pick has moderated to a low boil, after the former vice president announced Wednesday evening to a roomful of donors at a fundraising event that he’s not picking a running mate anytime soon. In fact, it could be “around August 1st.”

The AP and CNN reported:

At Wednesday’s fundraiser, which he co-hosted with former Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg, Biden said his four-person vetting committee is in the processing of “deciding the basic cut.”

“We’re in the process of deciding the basic cut, about whether or not they really want it. Are they comfortable? They’ve asked a lot of questions,” he said, according to a pool report readout of the event.

Previously, the presumptive nominee had said only that he hopes the vetting process for his vice presidential pick will be done by July.

So, it’s taking a little longer than Slow Joe had hoped. As my colleague  Joe Cunningham wrote Wednesday morning, one of the hot contenders in Biden’s “binders full” of women is Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. He wrote that she “appears to be making a bigger play for the spot by hosting big money fundraisers for Biden.”

Can it be a coincidence that a Thursday Politico piece, with the headline, “Famed Democratic pollster: Warren as VP would lead to Biden victory,” is floating out there now? I’m not too sure. Especially when, just yesterday, this heralded the latest Morning Consult/Politico poll, “Among Rumored Vice Presidential Candidates, Warren Would Give Biden the Biggest Boost.”

Things are looking good for a Warren pick, right? Not quite. Even the most basic look at the statistics don’t bear out that rosy headline.

Here’s what Morning Consult shared about Warren’s numbers [emphasis mine]:

According to the May 22-26 survey, 26 percent of registered voters said placing her on the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Biden, while 23 percent said it would make them less likely to back him. Her positive impact on Biden increased among voters under the age of 45, who view Warren in a more favorable light than they do Biden, as well as black and Hispanic voters.

Now, keep in mind — there’s a 2-point margin of error in this poll.

Here’s how California Sen. Kamala Harris, the next-highest polling candidate in their poll, did [emphasis mine]:

The poll found other high-profile potential picks such as California Sen. Kamala Harris, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Georgia’s Stacey Abrams would have a similarly marginal impact on the overall electorate. However, Harris, who would make 22 percent of the electorate more likely to vote for Biden, roughly matches Warren’s power with key groups such as voters under the age of 45 and voters in America’s suburbs.

Notice something? Harris’ and Warren’s numbers are statistically identical, within the margin of error. But you have to read seven paragraphs into the piece to learn Harris’ numbers. Makes you think, huh?

In a Tuesday interview with CNN’s Dana Bash, in which Biden tried to blame Charlamagne’s “being a wise guy” for his racist remark about black Americans, as my Townhall colleague Beth Baumann noted, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee refused to pledge to choose a woman who was not Caucasian.

CNN put it this way:

The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee would not commit to choosing a woman of color as his running mate, saying that “we haven’t gotten there yet.”

“There are women of color under consideration, and they’re women from every part of the country — so a lot of really qualified women that are ready to be president,” the former vice president told CNN’s Dana Bash.

Okay, whatever you say, Joe.