Poll Shows Congressional Republicans in New Jersey Vulnerable Thanks to Trump's Poor Numbers

By Carl Arbogast | 9:00 PM on April 16, 2018

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It may surprise some people, but there are members of Congress from New Jersey who are Republicans. Currently, five members of the New Jersey delegation are Republicans. That could all change in November.

Overall, Republicans are improving on the general ballot on a national level, but those polls don’t have much validity. Trying to get a sense of what are state races, is a fruitless exercise. However, the polling at the state level carries some more weight, and the latest from The Garden State does not bode well for the GOP:

Democrats have a formidable 19 point advantage in the statewide generic Congressional ballot test. If the election for the House of Representatives was held today, 54% of registered voters in New Jersey say they would vote or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared with 35% who would support the Republican. This gap is significantly wider than the generic House vote edge of 9 points (50% Democrats to 41% for Republicans) measured in a national Monmouth University Poll last month.

If this result holds, it would mark a substantially better result for Congressional Democrats in New Jersey than in recent elections. Democrats won the statewide House vote by 8 points (53% to 45%) in 2016 and an even smaller 2 points (50% to 48%) in the 2014 midterm. Moreover, the poll finds that the overall swing is coming mainly from GOP-held seats.

And the biggest reason why? Donald J. Trump, of course:

The main factor feeding this electoral environment is the decidedly negative view New Jersey residents have of Pres. Trump. Just 34% approve of the job he is doing and 61% disapprove. His rating is slightly better, but still in negative territory, among residents in the state’s five GOP-held congressional districts at 43% approve and 53% disapprove. In the seven Democratic districts, the president gets a 29% approve and 66% disapprove rating.

43 percent is two points above is national approval rating but those are Republican districts. And he cannot break 50 percent.

Naturally, Trumpers will say it’s not his fault. They’ll blame Paul Ryan. They’ll blame Jim Comey. They’ll blame the Stay Puff Marshmallow Man and then blame the Ghostbusters for crossing the streams.

But the fact is, Trump is a drag on the GOP brand.