The State of the Presidential Race

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

As discussed by my Red State colleague Bob Hoge, the Daily Beast has revealed ‘leaked’ video of Donald Trump stating a brutal assessment of Joe Biden’s performance against him in last week’s presidential debate, in which Trump calls Biden a “broken-down pile of crap” who is teetering on the verge of “quitting the race.”  

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Considering that this video has basically been endorsed by the Trump campaign, I tend to believe that this leak was very deliberate. Trump is probably trying to goad President Biden, who hates Trump with a passion, into staying in the 2024 presidential race.


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Which makes sense. Biden is a known quantity at this point, and as a known quantity, he was trailing Trump by roughly two points in the Real Clear Politics average before the presidential debate. Now, he is behind by three points, and that gap is increasing. No Republican should want Biden replaced (based on crass political reasons alone). Especially after the trainwreck that occurred last week when Slow Joe fell into the Orchestra Pit on national television.   

Certainly, I don’t.  

However, there is no question that the Democrats would be far better off without Slow Joe on the ticket. Of the five big problems I have mentioned before, the senility and corruption problems would completely drop off the board with a new candidate, and the other three big issues – the economy/inflation, the border situation, and the Gaza Democrat rioting – would all be more attenuated with another Democrat candidate replacing the man who created all of these problems. Even with Cackling Kamala. (Although she would bring in her own problems, including being an obviously incompetent DIE hire.) And there is some evidence from history that this is indeed true.

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The only real negatives would be the money situation, which might require a start over (if it is not Harris), the possibility that other Democrat candidates are not really prepared for the immense pressure of a national race, and the general feeling of Democrat chaos that such an action would create.

Unfortunately, Republicans like me will not get much of a say in what happens with the Democrat Party. That is up to the members of that party and its various factions. Which include:

  • The Obama Establishment Faction = currently, the largest faction and one of the more leftist groups, although still an establishment grouping.

  • The Clinton Establishment Faction = a slightly more conservative, although still left-leaning, establishment faction.

  • The Bernie Bros/DSA = the most leftist of all the factions, as befitting the faction whose nominal head is a communist fellow traveler who went to the Soviet Union on his honeymoon.

  • The Black Caucus = led by the African American House of Representatives leadership, especially James Clyburn; this faction has power as it represents the most loyal voters of the Democrat base, who tend to vote as a block.  

  • The Labor Unions = a more moderate faction, which is actually being wooed by Trump, similar to what happened in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s by Republican Presidents Nixon and Reagan.

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Note that there is no Biden establishment faction.  Because no one outside of Slow Joe’s family and personal hangers-on really likes and respects the guy.

Probably, the key “decider” in this situation is going to be former President Barack Obama, the leader of the largest Democrat faction. Obama has already come out with a (tepid) tweet supporting Slow Joe. (As has former President Bill Clinton.) But rumors abound that Obama, who has never thought much of Slow Joe – he backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and once reportedly said, “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f*** things up” – could be maneuvering against Biden. If Obama wants to, he certainly can sabotage his former vice president by threatening Slow Joe with behind-the-scenes video of Biden's senility (that Obama staffers in the White House undoubtedly have) or with evidence of Biden’s corruption (which occurred during Obama’s Presidency). Obama might support Cackling Kamala since he usually seems to prefer supporting Democrat politicians from his own racial group. However, considering her vast negatives, he might go with another person (assuming the Democrats also have negative information on Harris that could force her to step down).  

Neither the Clintons, the Bernie Bros, nor the Labor Unions have any special sympathy for Slow Joe. The Black Caucus has, through James Clyburn, hinted that they are open to Biden’s removal while favoring Harris as his replacement (after a mini-primary).  

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The next few weeks promise to be exciting times in American politics. And, as someone famous often says, “We’ll (just have to) see what happens.”

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