Your Sunday Morning Week's Poll Results: The End is Near

trump-clinton-faceoff-ballots

It’s Sunday morning, October 23, and there are two weeks and change until election day. When people tell you voting for a third party is waste, just remember that’s only true as long everyone agrees that it is. Something to think about.

Now here’s the bad news:


Reuters/Ipsos Daily Poll

The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):

reutersdaily102316

Trump pulled close on Tuesday but dropped back again by Thursday, after the debate. A debate during which they were both terrible. Would Gary Johnson or Even McMullin have been terrible? Or another interesting question, would Ted Cruz have been?

BLECH this is a garbage year. Let’s keep going, though.


Bloomberg:

The latest from Bloomberg has Donald Trump down nine to Hillary Clinton at 50 to 41 in the head-to-head, and in four-way polling … also down nine, at 47 to 38.

bloomberg-10-19

He does take the advantage in the enthusiasm gap, as I note here, but it’s barely a bright spot worth mentioning.


PRRI:
PRRI shows Clinton cleaning Trump’s clock this week, with a massive 51% vs. 36% advantage. That’s fifteen points, y’all. This is one of the earlier polls out in the last week, having been conducted just after the infamous Trump Tape from “Access Hollywood”.

prri-poll-trend

It would be easy to call this an outlier based on the wide margin, but it’s reflective of pretty much all the other polling from near the same time, so .. yeah. Not a good result for Donald. *Read Patterico’s full analysis here.)


Rasmussen:
This poll was released Friday and conducted after the final debate between the candidates last week. It has a change of fortune for Trump, showing a small two point advantage for Donald over Hillary, at 43% to 41%, which is within the margin of error.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with a 43% to 41% lead over his Democratic rival. Five percent (5%) favor Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns three percent (3%) support. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This is Rasmussen’s daily polling, which on Thursday showed a three point lead for Trump.


Fox News
Trump’s current TV outlet, Fox News, has him down six points to Hillary at 45 to 39.

fox-poll-102316

She has a six-point lead over Trump, 45-39 percent, in a new Fox News Poll of likely voters. Clinton was up by seven points last week (45-38 percent) and by two in early October (44-42 percent). Gary Johnson stands at 5 percent and Green Party’s Jill Stein at 3 percent.

In the head-to-head matchup, Clinton’s up by 49-42 percent. It was 49-41 percent at the end of last week (Oct. 10-12).


Quinnipiac:
Clinton is up seven points over Trump in the latest from Quinnipiac.

This from Politico was too interesting to pass up:

Hillary Clinton has a 7-point lead over Donald Trump nationally, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.
Heading into the third and final presidential debate, Clinton tops Trump among likely voters, 47 percent to 40 percent. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has 7 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein registers at 1 percent.

More than 9 in 10 Democrats are behind Clinton, while 8 in 10 Republicans are backing Trump, who has a 4-point advantage among independents.

Clinton and Trump are separated by a 2-point margin among men, 43 to 41. The former secretary of state, however, has double-digit advantages among women (52 to 37) and minority voters (63 to 25).

I note with interest that Trump is behind Hillary for support from within his own party, but still nabbing 80%. That’s not a terrible number for such a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible candidate.


RCP Average
This week the RCP Average for the head-to-head shows Hillary Clinton up 6.1 over Donald Trump, at 48 to 41.9. They are each exactly one point higher than they were last week.

In the four way match-up, they score Clinton ahead by +5.3, with Hillary at 44.7, Trump at 39.4, Johnson at 6.5, and Stein at 2.6.



SO …

None of these polls take McMullin into account. Haters can scoff if they like, but percentage points matter and he’ll affect them, particularly in Utah and a few other places. His are the uncounted.

With little time remaining, it looks very bad for Donald Trump in national opinion polling. He isn’t doing better in state by state polling. Tomorrow morning, we’ll have our weekly Monday morning electoral college update from Neil Stevens, so don’t miss it.

It’s reaching that time folks, some votes are already being counted. Turnout numbers for absentee and early voting are going to be coming in. The end is near. In more ways than one.