It’s October 2, the first Sunday of the month, and that means this is your Sunday Morning roundup of the polls from the last week. A lot of the weekly and monthly polling data does not reflect any debate bump or dip (with some exceptions), but the daily trackers do. So there are some differences there. Nobody is polling Sweet Meteor of Death anymore. I guess the joke is played out. Or maybe people are just sad there’s no sign of it yet.
Either way, here we go.
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
As you can see there wasn’t a huge change. After the debate, the gap closed from about 6 to about 4 and stayed in that area until Thursday, the last day with data available.
Here’s the same week’s daily polling where the other candidates were included.
Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein (animated GIF):
Hillary’s debate dip is a little more pronounced, dropping from a five to a two point lead, as Stein and Johnson pick up about a half point each the next day. Still, as has been the case for most of the year, Trump never gets on top.
Those are the dailies. In the latest weekly from Reuters, Hillary was up by 6 points.
The latest Rasmussen weekly has Trump at his highest point over Hillary since July, leading her by 5 points at 44% to 39%. That’s a shift over the last two polls.
This most recent result came from data collected prior to the debate last week. Which matters, because as you can see, there is a difference when you look at the Rasmussen daily results. In the most recent, from September 30th, the lead has changed to Hillary Clinton at 43% and Donald Trump at 42%. A squeaker, but a definite difference.
This was a three day poll that took place from the day after the debate through the last day of the month. It shows Clinton up by five points, at 49 to 44.
That’s the head-to-head. In the 4-way race it’s closer, with Hillary at 43%, Trump at 40%, Johnson at 8%, and Stein at 4%.
The latest Monmouth poll came out the day before the debate, and showed Clinton ahead by four points over Trump, at 46% to 42% among likely voters. That’s down from a 7 point lead she had last month.
What makes this one interesting, though, is what appears to be a perfectly accurate prediction:
The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds that 3-in-4 voters plan to watch tonight’s debate, but very few actually expect to learn anything that will impact their choice of candidate. A majority also feel that third party candidates should have been included in the debate and that debate moderators should fact check the candidates.
So far, it looks like they pretty much hit the nail on the head with that one. After the debate, I noted here at RedState that nobody learned anything, and as we can see in what poll data is available, it didn’t have a huge impact.
So, points for Monmouth.
Also a three day poll, the latest from Quinnipiac has the race in a dead heat on the day before the debate. “Too close to call” says the University poll, with Clinton at 44% and Trump at 43%.
The presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump is a virtual dead heat, as she takes 44 percent of American likely voters to his 43 percent, with 8 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Green Party candidate Jill stein, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.
This compares to a 41-39 percent Clinton lead among likely voters, with Johnson at 13 percent and Stein at 4 percent, in a September 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-UH-PE-ACK) University.
In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton gets 47 percent to Trump’s 46 percent.
They also call it a “dead heat” and “dead even.” The candidates are neck and neck in this one, you guys. I don’t know how many other ways to put that.
This poll, conducted before the debate, has the candidates likewise deadlocked, at 46% all. However, as Dan Spencer notes, Hillary leads among unlikely voters. What a … coup?
That’s right, the Bloomberg poll actually asked, for the first time, unlikely voters who they would back, if they changed their mind decided to do their civic duty and vote. According to Bloomberg Politics, the results show greater support for Hillary than The Donald — 38 percent to 27 percent.
Dan unpacks it more, but suffice it to say winning among people who probably won’t vote is hardly something to brag about on Twitter. Well, not for Hillary anyway.
Public Policy Polling has our only 5-way result this week, putting Evan McMullin into the mix. Clinton is up 4 in this one, at 49 to Trump’s 45. Here’s the full spread:
The poll also shows that more people dislike Hillary and Donald than like them. Her fav/unfav is 44/52, while his is 39/55. Sigh.
This week the RCP Average for the head-to-head shows Hillary Clinton up 3.1 over Donald Trump, at 47.5 to 44.4. They are each exactly one point higher than they were last week.
In the four way match-up, they score Clinton ahead by +2.9, with Hillary at 43.8, Trump at 40.9, Johnson at 7.3, and Stein at 2.4.
The debate has not been a game changer, but the fallout and all the data have yet to be collected. One big takeaway this week is that the third party candidates are becoming more irrelevant rather than more relevant, despite recent newspaper endorsements for Johnson. The third parties also seem to affect Hillary more in some polls, and Trump more in others.
The thing to watch for next week is how the debate continues to impact the race, with more poll data on the way, and more fallout being analyzed, discussed, and played as sound bites for a week. We’ll see.
In the end, we’re obviously getting one of the two worst candidates in memory as our next President. All the heads. All the desks.
For the electoral college outlook, see Neil’s latest coverage here.