It’s August 28, and this is your Sunday morning weekly poll round-up and real world Walking Dead warning. We’ve missed the last few weeks for reasons, but we’re back, we’re using weirdly out of place youngster slang, and things are as bleak as ever, fellow kids. So get your Maalox, put on some opera music, and let’s do this thing.
Here we go.
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
The daily tracker shows Secretary Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump trading the lead all week, generally within one point. This is a tie. It also shows that the number of votes being siphoned off by Gary Johnson and, to a much lesser extent Jill Stein (who is behind “other”) is approaching 10 percent.
NBC News/Survey Monkey
NBC’s latest poll has Hillary with an 8-point lead over Trump, down insignificantly from about 9 points the last edition of the same poll. It’s a trend.
Johnson remains in double digits here, as in other polls.
In a four-way general election match-up, Clinton holds a 5-point margin over Trump 43-38 percent, while Libertarian Gary Johnson garners 11 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 5 percent.
Trump is down by 3 behind Hillary in the latest YouGov poll of their head to head matchup, 47% to 44%. Her lead increased to four points when you add in Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.
Hillary added one point from the last poll, while Trump gained three.
Quinnipiac’s latest head to head matchup between Trump and Hillary has her up a whopping 10 points over Donald, at 51 to 41, significantly breaking the 50% mark.
From the survey:
When third party candidates are added to the mix, Clinton gets 45 percent with Trump at 38 percent, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson at 10 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
Note that Hillary’s lead drops three points when you add in the third party candidates. Interesting difference from other polls.
No head-to-head this time, Rasmussen’s results how the four way race, with Hillary leading Trump by 4 points in what has certainly been the most Trump-friendly of the major polling outlets.
The e-mail scandal and new accusations about the Clinton Foundation may be bedeviling Hillary Clinton, but Donald Trump appears unable to capitalize on them.
The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch shows Trump losing ground: Clinton now holds a 42% to 38% lead among Likely U.S. Voters, up slightly from the 41% to 39% advantage she held a week ago.
In the latest survey, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson again captures nine percent (9%) of the vote, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up two percent (2%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
Rasmussen notes Trump’s support is in the thirties for the second week in a row. Bro. Not good. They also reiterate the point I’ve made here several times, that Trump can’t capitalize on scandals that should be rocking, or rock-bottoming, Hillary’s numbers. Almost any other Republican candidate surely would have.
In the latest Marist poll, done in association with Breitbart dot com, Hillary leads Trump by one point. One infuriating, inexplicable point if you’re Breitbart.
The poll has hilarious Breitbartian questions like “Do you agree or disagree? Donald Trump would fight for people like me.” A gigantic 51% disagree that he would. Ouch, right guys?
This week the RCP Average for the head-to-head shows Hillary Clinton up 6.3 over Donald Trump, at 48.4 to 42.1. In the four way matchup, they score Clinton Clinton +3.7 over Trump, with 44.1 for Hillary, 40.4 for Donald, 6.1 for Gary Johnson, and 2.3 for Jill Stein.
That’s some tough numbers for the Trump camp. Things can always change, but not many people think they will. And of course, there’s the matter of Trump’s previous suggestion that he’d drop out if his numbers tanked.
I think, though, the more significant moment in that video is Trump professing his full faith and belief in what the polls says. It’s something we’ve seen all through his campaign as he has touted and praised polling data over and over from the stage. Keep that in mind if Trump supporters start up again with the total nonsense about the polls being meaningless and Twitter activity being the real gauge. Even Trump doesn’t think that.