It’s July 24, and this is your Sunday morning weekly poll round-up and public opinion prognastification! It’s too early for a convention bump (it won’t be much), but not too early for a VP bump (there wasn’t one), and too late for more email fallout damage (sort of.) The race is so tight this week, but at least one person is doing surprisingly well. First, though, we have to get the numbers. Therefore …
Here we go.
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
The only one that might show the convention bounce, if early, is the daily tracking, and as you can see, over the course of the week Donald Trump rises by about 3 points while Secretary Hillary Clinton drops 4. That’s a seven point shift that nevertheless still leaves Clinton firmly in the lead.
Another significant narrowing in the ABC/WaPo that shows Hillary ahead by 4 now, down from 12.
As Dan points out, this includes Hillary losing ground among women. That’s a shifting of the earth in Hillary land that is a bad sign among their most certain demographic.
Posted just ahead of the convention, it’s another poll where Clinton remains in the lead, but the overall numbers haven’t changed very much.
That 13 for Johnson is huge, and it hurts Trump more than it hurts Hillary.
This is best explained by CNN:
Little has changed in overall support for either candidate since the end of the primaries in mid-June, despite major moments in the campaign including Donald Trump’s announcement of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate, Clinton’s endorsement by her main rival for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and the announcement by the FBI that Clinton would not face charges for her use of a personal email server while secretary of state.
But one candidate has made gains since last month: Libertarian Gary Johnson. In a four-way matchup between Clinton, Trump, Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton carries 42%, Trump 37%, Johnson 13% and Stein 5%. That represents almost no change for either Clinton or Trump, but a 4-point bump for Johnson.
Gary Johnson’s star continues to rise.
Another poll that shows where the candidates stood just before the convention began. In this case, Donald Trump behind Hillary Clinton by three points.
But here’s the really interesting takeaway:
Clinton has yet to make inroads with most of those who supported Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders during the primary season, at least when people are offered other options, even though he has formally endorsed her.
Now that the #DNCLeak story has Sanders fans really angry, could she lose even more? And where will they go? At the time of the poll, “one in three Sanders supporters want Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, or “someone else.'” BEFORE the scandal, a third went third party. That’s another big ouch for Hillary.
Now that is interesting.
Another pre-convention poll, this one shows Hillary ahead by 1 point, down from three. One point. In other words, it’s basically a tie. But once again the most interesting result is when you take the third parties into account.
Johnson is in double-digits here, too. This is a trend, and that trend is Johnson climbing. A tangled web, indeed.
The One America News/Gravis poll has been one of Trump’s favorites, and this week should be no exception as it shows him ahead by two points.
It’s not the only one where he’s ahead though.
Rasmussen continues to show Trump in the lead, but with a smaller margin. Just two points.
The poll also shows a slight dip in the overall support for third party candidates, which is historically the case after the conventions and as election day draws near. It’s a bigger dip for Trump who is actually down from his highest to date, despite his VP pick and the continued Hillary email fallout. The convention and the #DNCLeak will surely change that next week.
This week the RCP Average stands has Hillary Clinton at +2, a lead of 44.6 to 42.6. This represents essentially no change.
The email fallout is still there, but lessened. The convention bounce has not yet had a chance to show in the numbers. But in polling where Donald Trump, fresh from a huge Hillary scandal and having finally named his VP should have seen a big gain, the only person who seems to be charging ahead, against all expectation, is third party challenger Gary Johnson. It doesn’t make him a contender, but it’s getting him close to the debate stage, and it’s definitely becoming a mathematical spoiler.