It’s July 17, and this is your Sunday morning weekly poll round-up and public opinion flabbergastery! This week things are tighter than an otter’s pocket, which is pretty tight, what with all the swimming and ottering. The conventions begin this week. RedState writers arrive in Cleveland starting this afternoon. And with the conventions taking off, the numbers are close. Real close. Glenn close.
But be warned. Nobody should get their hopes up, or down, until you read to the end. So now, without further ado …
Here we go.
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
As you can see, over the course of the week Donald Trump lost about 3 points, while Hillary ended up pretty much where she started: way ahead. The most recent has her up 13 points over Trump.
Here is the matchup with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included, from Thursday and Friday’s daily trackers.
The Economist/YouGov Poll
Hillary leads Trump by 2 in the latest, which is a drop of 3 points for her since last week.
Hillary’s lead goes up to 3 when you include the third party candidates.
This poll was conducted July 9 – 11. In other words, after FBI Director Comey’s damning listing of Clinton’s crimes that nobody is going to charge her with. In fact just 3 days after it, and only two days after the hearing on Capitol Hill. Hillary came out of that looking bad no matter the spin or the lack of charges, and you can see it in this poll.
Not that Trump is doing much better.
The new one has Hillary ahead of Trump by 3, at 42% to 39%. It’s a tiny lead, just like in the Economist/YouGov poll above:
As you can see, Hillary has really cratered, dropping from a nine point lead to this week’s three point. Also of note is how the race looks factoring in Gary Johnson and Jill Stein:
When Gary Johnson, the Liberarian, and Jill Stein of the Green Party are included in the presidential tossup, Clinton receives the support of 40% of voters to 35% for Trump. Johnson garners 10% of the national electorate while 5% back Stein. Two percent support someone else, and 9% are undecided. Of note, more than one in four voters who report they supported Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders during the Democratic contest say they are for Johnson, 14%, or Stein, 13%. Similarly, about a quarter of voters who backed a Republican other than Trump in the primaries report they plan to vote for Johnson, 19%, or Stein, 5%.
As with the above poll, the Marist poll includes people reacting to Comey’s press conference. In fact, this poll was conducted over a period starting on the day of the announcement of no charges. Another poll where she’s dropped following the disastrous revelations, this time a precipitous drop.
How precipitous? In a year of polling, this is the first time they’ve had her below 50%. It hurt her.
In perhaps the most talked-about poll this week, the CBS/YouGov has Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a dead heat at 40% to 40%.
Again, voters in this poll took special exception to Hillary’s email scandal. Also Gov. Gary Johnson polled very well, taking evenly from both candidates, which you can read about here.
Rasmussen is the outlier lately, having given Trump the lead for the last few weeks running, while most national polls showed an unbroken Clinton lead for most of the year. Today they have Trump up over Clinton by 7, at 44% to 37%.
Rasmussen also shows Trump with more in-party support than Hillary, which is also different from nearly every other poll.
In a much less talked-about poll than the others, we find another lead for Donald Trump over Hillary, by 3 points at 43% to 40%. This is a new tracking poll, and these are the latest results.
In the new tracking poll, through Thursday night, Trump led Clinton 43% to 40%. That’s within the poll’s margin of error of 3 points in either direction, meaning the apparent lead could be the result of chance.
By Friday morning, the poll, which will be updated every day through the election, was showing a decline in Trump’s lead.
We’ll begin tracking the daily results next week after there are enough for comparison.
This Associated Press/GfK poll has only the four-way results, not the Clinton-Trump head to head, and shows Hillary Clinton up by 4 over Donald Trump at 34 to 30.
The undecideds are high in this one at 21%. Among the undecided, the respondents lean Hillary Clinton at 29
Donald Trump at 28, and Gary Johnson at 11.
This one is not a race match-up, but I’m including it so you can see how much people don’t like what happened with Hillary’s email. It’s a small sample, but the result is interesting and, taken with the above, if not informative, at least indicative.
According to a ABC News/Washington Post poll, 56% of those surveyed disapprove of the FBI’s recommendation, 35 percent of those surveyed approve. The results come just a week after FBI Director James Comey delivered a detailed explanation of the bureau’s decision not to bring charges. The pollsters surveyed only 519 people, a relatively miniscule sample size.
The poll also finds that 57% of Americans are worried about how Clinton would govern if she were elected president in November in the wake of the Justice Department’s decision not to indict her; 39% say the two are not related.
This week the RCP Average stands has Hillary Clinton at +2.7, a lead of 43.1 to 40.4. Another dip for Hillary, no change for Trump.
Hillary took a hit, the worst she’s taken so far. People don’t trust her and they weren’t happy with the fact that no charges were brought after the FBI listed so many things she did wrong and criminally. But before enthusiasm breaks too much, just note that even with that being said, in most cases her lead narrowed. Her lead. Which she still has. After that devastating blow, Trump still isn’t blowing her away.
If he can’t steal the lead after that … well it’s hard to imagine what he can do.
In any case, what matters now and for the next few weeks is how the conventions go. Momentum is a powerful thing. Whoever comes out with the most will matter to the race for a while.