It’s June 19, and this is your Sunday Morning Poll Results Roundup and Schizophrenia Showcase! This week, the battle for the Oval Office is dominated by the battles over gun control, radical Islamic terror, tragedy and strife, and the American people are ridiculously divided and strangely split. It’s all about American anxiety and where we blame and aim.
So, here we go …
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
As you can see, the results are mostly steady. Both Hillary and Trump took a slight dip on Monday, but came back up. By Friday, Hillary was down by just under a point, Trump up by just over one. Hillary continues to maintain her unbroken lead.
On Tuesday, Bloomberg’s latest had Hillary destroying Trump by 12 points.
However, with the attack in Florida still fresh, and the attack in France brand new, the poll showed that Americans consider Trump better on fighting terror than Hillary. In fact, the split on who is strongest at what is exactly why this week’s results are best called “schizophrenic.”
On Wednesday, another national poll also showed Hillary dramatically beating Trump.
Leon notes that there is an even more surprising result when the Libertarian is added to the question:
However, when Libertarian Gary Johnson was added to the mix, Hillary’s lead remained essentially unchanged, but Johnson showed massive levels of support – levels that would be wholly unprecedented for a Libertarian Party candidate. When Johnson is thrown into the mix, the top line result becomes Clinton 39, Trump 32, Johnson 11.
Trump has been bragging about this one, both online and in his weekend rallies, because he says it has him in a statistical tie with Hillary.
So the poll shows him losing to Hillary, it still shows him losing when they add in Gary Johnson, and it was conducted over a month ago. It’s not a big win.
On Thursday, Rasmussen Reports had Hillary up by 5 over Donald.
Hillary is on a steady rise with Rasmussen. Her support among Democrats is about 10 points higher than Trump’s support among Republicans. Clinton also has a 16 point lead among women.
This is not a head to head poll, but it is informative about the numbers we’re seeing in the other polls.
Not the huge partisan divide, but note also, as we explain here, that overall more Americans realistically view the attack in Orlando as Islamic terror than as domestic gun violence. A minor victory, it may seem, but an important one.
This week the RCP Average stands has Hillary Clinton up by 5.8, at 44.9 to Donald Trump’s 39.1. That’s a two point higher lead for Clinton than last week. In the three way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson, it’s Hillary 40.3, Trump 35, and Johnson at 8.5. Both Johnson and Trump slightly down over last week.
And that’s the poll update for Sunday, June 16. Hillary still has the lead over Trump, or in some cases a statistical tie, and even with Gary Johnson in the mix she stays ahead. The daily tracking shows very little change, with Trump slightly closing the gap by the end of the week. Voters tend to think that the attack in Florida was terror, and that Trump is better on terror, but his response to events of the week was poorly received, and his late game support for “No Fly, No Buy” won’t help him with Republicans. They both have, and will keep, very high negatives.