Tales from the Dark Side: Here Are Your Terrible Tuesday Vote Totals and Delegate Projections

TuesdayDarkside

Another Tuesday, another set of primary results. Like last week, Donald Trump was the only man in the race, but not the only name on the ballot and still had to compete for votes to get that big moral victory he’s sought the whole election. And on the Democrat side: chaos. Let’s dive in.

Here are our projections.


Kentucky (Democrats): The Dems competed in Kentucky last night, and for most of the evening the race was too close to call. But in the end, a winner was declared. Secretary Hillary Clinton closed the deal (barely) with 46.75% of the vote. Senator Bernie Sanders came in a very tight second with 46.33%. Yes. Separated by less than one percent.

The Kentucky race is a proportional one, so delegates are split almost even. Clinton takes 28 home with her, and Sanders 27.


Oregon (Democrats): In Oregon, the opposite. Sanders wins, and by a non-trivial margin. Bernie Sanders won with a convincing 54.27%, and Hillary took 45.73%.

Oregon is also proportional, which is bad news for Bernie. Sanders grabs the most delegates at 22, while Clinton adds 18 more to her overwhelming total.


Oregon (Republican): Yes Donald Trump won Oregon, but he didn’t well. Trump pulled off his biggest score yet with 66.8% of the vote. Senator Ted Cruz took 16.63% of the vote, and Governor John Kasich pulled 16.56%.

Now for the interesting part. Because Oregon is proportional, Trump doesn’t get all the delegates, even though he’s the only person who hasn’t suspended his campaign. Trump takes the most, of course, with 19. But 5 are for Kasich and 4 are for Cruz, after tallying congressional districts.


[As always, please note these are the best projections based on information available at the time of the posting and are subject to change.]

And now for the big moment: the delegate totals (aka the bad news).

The Day: RedState estimates the new total delegates to date (for the four delegate leaders) at:

DONALD TRUMP:        1,152
SEN. TED CRUZ:            572
SEN. MARCO RUBIO:   168
GOV. JOHN KASICH:   162

This means that at the time of this posting, Donald Trump is now within 85 delegates of clinching the nomination. No contested convention. No nothing. Just Trump. As the nominee. And that 85 will probably drop to about 77 today as final confirmations come in.

Told you it was bad news. And for you Sanders hopefuls, well … be prepared to sigh a lot.

Sources include CNN, AP, The Green Papers, Bing, and campaign data.